NBA games

DAL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
107–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL30232628107
MIL43293431137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIL
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 34 28 4 4
Naji Marshall S 32 22 11 2
Brandon Williams 34 14 5 8
Max Christie S 36 13 2 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 25 9 2 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 29 8 1 6
Kessler Edwards 26 7 2 3
Dwight Powell S 24 6 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 27 34 3 5
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 25 32 15 4
AJ Green 31 18 2 2
Kyle Kuzma S 27 17 4 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 26 10 11 14
Jericho Sims 20 10 8 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 9 8 1 0
Taurean Prince S 29 3 4 0
Jamaree Bouyea 5 2 0 1
Brook Lopez S 23 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Brook Lopez assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Kyle Kuzma MIL
11%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
6 Dwight Powell DAL
7%
7 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
8 Kessler Edwards DAL
7%
9 Caleb Martin DAL
7%
10 Dante Exum DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
12%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.9 12.8 6.7
2 Damian Lillard MIL 23.4 4.4 5.8
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL 17.2 7.8 3.2
4 P.J. Washington DAL 16.9 9.1 3.2
5 Brook Lopez MIL 16.2 7.1 2.3
6 Klay Thompson DAL 14.9 4.1 2.1
7 Max Christie DAL 13.2 4.0 3.6
8 Naji Marshall DAL 12.3 6.4 3.3
9 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 10.7 2.6 3.5
10 Taurean Prince MIL 10.7 3.9 2.1
11 Caleb Martin DAL 10.3 4.4 1.9
12 AJ Green MIL 9.1 2.8 1.6
13 Dante Exum DAL 9.0 2.2 3.3
14 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 8.8 2.7 2.6
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.3 1.8 1.2
16 Kessler Edwards DAL 5.9 3.9 1.7
17 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 5.4 2.7 0.9
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.6 1.9 0.8
19 Jericho Sims MIL 3.3 3.4 0.7
20 Tyler Smith MIL 3.1 1.3 0.5
21 Dwight Powell DAL 3.0 2.9 0.9
22 Brandon Williams DAL 3.0 0.9 1.2
23 Stanley Umude MIL 2.5 1.4 0.6
24 Chris Livingston MIL 1.5 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.