NBA games

SAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
110–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC42232817110
DEN29262932116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DEN
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 43 35 6 5
Zach LaVine S 41 20 4 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 32 19 13 6
Jake LaRavia 24 15 5 1
Keon Ellis S 39 11 7 3
Keegan Murray S 29 6 3 0
Trey Lyles 19 4 5 1
Markelle Fultz 10 0 1 0
Doug McDermott 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 35 25 5 3
Jamal Murray S 38 24 4 8
Nikola Jokic S 38 22 15 6
Christian Braun S 38 15 2 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 13 12 0
Zeke Nnaji 19 10 3 0
Jalen Pickett 18 5 2 3
Peyton Watson 17 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Christian Braun DEN
15%
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
13%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
4 Zach LaVine SAC
11%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
6 Jonas Valanciunas SAC
10%
7 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
8 Russell Westbrook DEN
10%
9 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
10 Vlatko Cancar DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
28%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine SAC 24.1 4.1 4.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 23.8 3.4 6.4
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.7 4.6 5.4
4 Nikola Jokic DEN 23.4 11.2 9.6
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.3 8.1 2.8
6 Christian Braun DEN 18.6 6.3 3.3
7 Keegan Murray SAC 13.7 5.7 1.9
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 12.0 4.5 4.9
9 Keon Ellis SAC 9.6 3.6 1.4
10 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 8.2 6.1 1.2
11 Peyton Watson DEN 6.1 3.3 1.4
12 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.0 3.5 0.9
13 Trey Lyles SAC 4.9 2.7 1.3
14 Markelle Fultz SAC 4.8 1.3 1.4
15 Dario Saric DEN 4.5 3.1 1.5
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.4 1.5 1.9
17 Jake LaRavia SAC 4.2 2.3 1.2
18 Jae Crowder SAC 4.0 2.2 0.7
19 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.8 1.8 0.9
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.6 0.9 0.6
21 Isaac Jones SAC 3.5 1.8 0.7
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.0 4.8 0.8
23 Devin Carter SAC 2.8 1.1 0.7
24 Skal Labissiere SAC 2.5 1.2 0.7
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.2 1.1 0.4
26 Spencer Jones DEN 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.