NBA games

OKC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
120–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC30313029120
MEM28272325103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MEM
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 41 2 8
Jalen Williams S 35 20 5 9
Aaron Wiggins 30 16 1 3
Jaylin Williams 19 13 4 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 28 10 15 2
Isaiah Joe 16 8 3 1
Ousmane Dieng 9 5 1 0
Cason Wallace S 19 4 4 1
Luguentz Dort S 34 3 4 3
Adam Flagler 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 32 24 3 6
Desmond Bane S 33 15 6 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 21 15 5 3
Brandon Clarke 27 13 11 2
Vince Williams Jr. S 25 12 3 2
GG Jackson 20 6 3 2
Zach Edey S 20 6 9 0
Jaylen Wells S 26 3 5 1
Marvin Bagley III 15 3 2 0
Cam Spencer 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
16%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
7 Zach Edey MEM
8%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
9 Chet Holmgren OKC
8%
10 Luke Kennard MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
23%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.6 5.3 6.5
2 Desmond Bane MEM 23.6 7.1 6.1
3 Ja Morant MEM 23.3 4.4 6.7
4 Jalen Williams OKC 22.8 4.9 5.8
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC 15.1 4.2 2.2
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.7 7.8 1.9
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.6 3.2 1.7
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.9 9.3 3.7
9 Cason Wallace OKC 10.5 3.1 2.8
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.2 3.1 1.7
11 Luke Kennard MEM 9.8 2.9 3.3
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.6 5.6 1.2
13 GG Jackson MEM 8.0 2.9 1.4
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.2 2.3 1.1
15 Zach Edey MEM 7.1 7.5 0.9
16 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.1 3.4 2.0
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.1 3.0 1.8
18 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.0 2.6 2.0
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.5 2.3 1.5
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.5 4.3 1.8
21 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.8 3.0 0.8
22 Cam Spencer MEM 3.8 1.3 1.1
23 Marvin Bagley III MEM 3.7 2.7 0.4
24 Adam Flagler OKC 2.4 0.7 0.5
25 Jay Huff MEM 2.1 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.