NBA games

MIA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
107–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA32272325107
CLE36272326112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CLE
6% 94%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 38 34 12 5
Duncan Robinson 29 14 3 2
Haywood Highsmith 27 13 3 2
Terry Rozier S 40 12 1 2
Kevin Love S 16 10 6 1
Davion Mitchell S 26 9 1 7
Kyle Anderson 26 7 11 7
Alec Burks S 25 5 5 2
Pelle Larsson 12 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 26 7 5
De'Andre Hunter 24 16 5 2
Evan Mobley S 36 16 13 3
Darius Garland S 32 15 3 10
Ty Jerome 24 12 5 1
Max Strus S 26 11 2 2
Isaac Okoro 10 7 2 1
Jarrett Allen S 25 4 8 1
Sam Merrill 16 3 2 0
Dean Wade 11 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
6 Darius Garland CLE
7%
7 Terry Rozier MIA
7%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
6%
9 De'Andre Hunter CLE
6%
10 Max Strus CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
23%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 23.8 4.2 6.2
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.6 9.8 3.4
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.1 4.0 5.1
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.9 9.5 3.7
5 Darius Garland CLE 16.7 3.0 6.1
6 Ty Jerome CLE 16.2 3.6 3.8
7 De'Andre Hunter CLE 14.3 4.6 1.6
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.9 10.1 2.0
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.9 2.8 2.8
10 Max Strus CLE 10.9 4.1 3.2
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.7 2.3 4.1
12 Terry Rozier MIA 10.0 3.1 2.0
13 Alec Burks MIA 7.7 3.6 1.4
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.4 3.2 1.4
15 Sam Merrill CLE 6.5 2.6 1.1
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.0 3.8 1.6
17 Javonte Green CLE 5.5 3.4 1.2
18 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.4 2.7 1.1
19 Jaylon Tyson CLE 5.3 2.2 1.2
20 Kyle Anderson MIA 4.9 2.9 1.2
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.8 2.0 2.0
22 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.2 1.8 0.9
23 Kevin Love MIA 4.1 2.8 0.7
24 Josh Christopher MIA 3.5 1.3 0.9
25 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.2 1.4 2.4
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.6 1.9 0.5
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.4 2.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.