NBA games

MIN @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
125–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN39263228125
CHA28302527110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home CHA
80% 20%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 38 29 10 4
Anthony Edwards S 38 29 3 6
Julius Randle S 36 25 10 9
Donte DiVincenzo S 32 16 5 1
Naz Reid S 35 13 10 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 13 4 0 0
Rob Dillingham 6 3 0 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 30 3 4 3
Jaylen Clark 14 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 36 28 10 6
Miles Bridges S 35 23 9 5
Seth Curry 26 14 7 2
Mark Williams S 24 12 8 2
Nick Smith Jr. S 37 11 4 3
DaQuan Jeffries S 27 6 2 2
Moussa Diabate 12 6 4 1
Tidjane Salaun 16 4 7 3
Damion Baugh 15 4 1 2
Jusuf Nurkic 12 2 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes layup (DaQuan Jeffries assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
19%
2 Julius Randle MIN
15%
3 Mark Williams CHA
14%
4 Naz Reid MIN
12%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
6 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
7 Anthony Edwards MIN
8%
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
8%
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
0%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.6 7.0 6.1
2 Miles Bridges CHA 23.0 7.9 4.0
3 Naz Reid MIN 20.0 10.1 3.7
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.0 5.0 5.7
5 Julius Randle MIN 18.8 8.1 5.6
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.8 7.3 3.2
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 17.1 4.8 5.5
8 Mark Williams CHA 16.2 11.6 2.1
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 14.1 4.3 3.3
10 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 12.9 2.5 3.2
11 Damion Baugh CHA 10.3 3.1 4.0
12 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 9.9 4.1 1.9
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.1 6.2 1.2
14 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 8.1 7.6 3.7
15 Seth Curry CHA 7.7 2.6 1.1
16 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.8 4.0 1.1
17 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.8 2.0 2.2
18 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.6 3.2 1.5
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.5 1.8 1.1
20 Bones Hyland MIN 4.7 1.1 1.5
21 Jesse Edwards MIN 4.7 2.4 0.8
22 Luka Garza MIN 4.6 2.5 0.8
23 Malachi Flynn CHA 3.5 1.3 1.0
24 Taj Gibson CHA 3.4 4.7 0.6
25 Leonard Miller MIN 3.2 1.8 0.6
26 Josh Minott MIN 3.0 1.8 0.6
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.3 0.9 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.