NBA games

POR @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
118–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR26292736118
BOS31353626128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home BOS
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 38 30 1 6
Shaedon Sharpe S 40 25 6 2
Jabari Walker 31 22 6 0
Scoot Henderson 26 13 2 4
Toumani Camara S 31 12 4 2
Deni Avdija S 23 12 6 2
Donovan Clingan S 20 2 7 1
Kris Murray 15 2 4 1
Dalano Banton 7 0 1 1
Duop Reath 9 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 43 43 10 5
Derrick White S 39 41 3 2
Jaylen Brown S 40 18 8 8
Al Horford S 31 12 9 4
Sam Hauser S 32 5 6 0
Neemias Queta 11 4 4 0
Jordan Walsh 21 3 6 1
Luke Kornet S 23 2 6 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
16%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
3 Deni Avdija POR
11%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
5 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
6 Luke Kornet BOS
9%
7 Jerami Grant POR
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Al Horford BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
22%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 21.9 3.4 5.0
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.3 5.2 4.0
3 Derrick White BOS 18.8 4.4 5.0
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.5 4.6 3.8
5 Deni Avdija POR 16.8 5.8 4.1
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.8 4.1 3.5
7 Toumani Camara POR 13.3 5.8 2.7
8 Jerami Grant POR 12.3 3.4 2.1
9 Scoot Henderson POR 12.2 2.7 5.0
10 Al Horford BOS 10.2 7.0 1.4
11 Donovan Clingan POR 8.8 7.9 1.3
12 Dalano Banton POR 7.6 2.2 2.2
13 Sam Hauser BOS 7.5 3.2 1.2
14 Jabari Walker POR 6.1 3.9 1.1
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.8 4.5 1.9
16 Kris Murray POR 4.9 2.5 0.9
17 Torrey Craig BOS 4.6 2.3 0.7
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.5 3.3 0.8
19 Duop Reath POR 4.0 1.9 0.6
20 Drew Peterson BOS 2.8 1.3 0.8
21 JD Davison BOS 2.8 1.0 0.8
22 Justin Minaya POR 2.4 1.1 0.5
23 Bryce McGowens POR 2.2 1.0 0.5
24 Rayan Rupert POR 2.2 1.2 0.6
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.5 0.9 0.4
26 Baylor Scheierman BOS 1.5 1.1 0.4
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.