NBA games

NO @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
115–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO23362531115
LAL36333334136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home LAL
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 26 37 4 6
Trey Murphy III S 33 19 6 5
Jordan Hawkins 29 17 4 1
Kelly Olynyk S 27 11 4 2
CJ McCollum S 25 10 3 5
Karlo Matkovic 18 5 4 3
Jose Alvarado 26 5 2 3
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 4 5 0 0
Bruce Brown 24 4 5 1
Yves Missi S 24 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 33 34 8 6
Luka Doncic S 34 30 8 15
Jaxson Hayes S 24 19 10 0
Dalton Knecht 26 13 4 3
Jarred Vanderbilt 20 12 8 1
Shake Milton 19 12 2 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 30 8 5 0
Trey Jemison III 17 4 5 2
Bronny James 4 2 1 0
Gabe Vincent S 29 2 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
14%
2 Zion Williamson NO
14%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
4 Yves Missi NO
10%
5 CJ McCollum NO
10%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
8 Gabe Vincent LAL
7%
9 Kelly Olynyk NO
7%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
13%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 29.6 10.6 8.5
2 Zion Williamson NO 26.3 7.0 5.6
3 Luka Doncic LAL 24.3 7.8 7.6
4 CJ McCollum NO 22.3 4.5 4.6
5 Trey Murphy III NO 19.0 5.3 5.9
6 Kelly Olynyk NO 11.9 6.6 3.2
7 Jose Alvarado NO 10.3 3.5 4.8
8 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.7 3.1 1.8
9 Yves Missi NO 9.5 8.5 1.1
10 Karlo Matkovic NO 9.5 5.0 1.2
11 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.6 4.0 2.1
12 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.1 6.1 1.5
13 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.1 1.8 2.1
14 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.9 2.2 1.0
15 Bruce Brown NO 6.7 3.4 1.6
16 Brandon Boston NO 5.6 2.0 0.7
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.6 4.6 1.3
18 Shake Milton LAL 5.4 2.1 1.6
19 Cam Reddish LAL 4.6 2.2 1.1
20 Trey Jemison III LAL 4.0 3.1 0.7
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.9 2.4 0.5
22 Bronny James LAL 2.4 0.8 0.6
23 Jamal Cain NO 1.9 1.1 0.4
24 Alex Len LAL 1.9 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.