NBA games

LAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
117–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC24413022117
PHX30192743119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home PHX
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ivica Zubac S 37 35 10 3
Kawhi Leonard S 37 21 4 3
James Harden S 38 21 6 15
Amir Coffey 22 13 2 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 37 13 4 3
Drew Eubanks 11 7 4 0
Nicolas Batum 17 3 3 2
Kris Dunn S 32 2 1 3
Jordan Miller 10 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 41 34 7 4
Devin Booker S 41 17 5 8
Nick Richards S 23 16 7 0
Mason Plumlee 25 14 6 4
Royce O'Neale 29 12 3 3
Collin Gillespie 15 10 2 3
Grayson Allen 24 8 3 2
Tyus Jones 19 6 1 5
Bol Bol S 9 2 1 0
Bradley Beal S 15 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden LAC
14%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
3 Devin Booker PHX
13%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
6 Nick Richards PHX
10%
7 Bol Bol PHX
10%
8 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
40%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
30%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 24.7 4.0 8.1
2 Bradley Beal PHX 22.9 4.5 4.9
3 Kevin Durant PHX 22.2 5.6 4.4
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 21.9 6.0 3.7
5 James Harden LAC 21.2 5.7 8.5
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 19.0 11.7 2.9
7 Bol Bol PHX 13.8 6.1 1.5
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 12.4 2.9 3.0
9 Amir Coffey LAC 11.6 2.8 1.6
10 Grayson Allen PHX 10.6 3.0 2.6
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.9 3.7 1.9
12 Kris Dunn LAC 9.7 4.8 4.1
13 Nick Richards PHX 9.3 8.4 1.1
14 Vasilije Micic PHX 9.2 2.6 3.5
15 Tyus Jones PHX 9.1 2.7 5.4
16 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.3 5.5 1.7
17 Drew Eubanks LAC 4.9 3.7 0.9
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.5 2.4 0.8
19 Damion Lee PHX 4.1 1.3 0.7
20 Collin Gillespie PHX 3.8 1.4 1.1
21 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.7 2.1 0.6
22 Jordan Miller LAC 3.1 1.7 0.7
23 Patty Mills LAC 3.0 0.9 0.7
24 Kobe Brown LAC 2.6 1.4 0.7
25 Oso Ighodaro PHX 2.3 1.4 0.8
26 Cam Christie LAC 2.2 1.0 0.4
27 Monte Morris PHX 2.2 0.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.