NBA games

BKN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
113–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN25322333113
SA31313728127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home SA
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 26 24 1 6
Cameron Johnson S 31 17 3 4
Jalen Wilson 22 13 0 1
Trendon Watford 23 12 10 5
D'Angelo Russell S 25 12 1 4
Tyrese Martin 23 9 3 3
Keon Johnson 18 8 7 1
Ziaire Williams S 20 7 3 1
Nic Claxton S 32 6 7 4
Dariq Whitehead 2 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 35 37 11 5
Stephon Castle 27 17 4 6
Keldon Johnson 27 15 8 1
De'Aaron Fox S 27 15 3 7
Bismack Biyombo S 26 13 14 3
Chris Paul S 29 11 0 7
Harrison Barnes S 22 9 2 3
Julian Champagnie 19 8 1 2
Jeremy Sochan 22 2 2 3
Malaki Branham 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bismack Biyombo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Bismack Biyombo makes 9-foot two point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
2 Cameron Johnson BKN
11%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
4 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
5 Cam Thomas BKN
9%
6 Ziaire Williams BKN
9%
7 D'Angelo Russell BKN
8%
8 Bismack Biyombo SA
8%
9 Chris Paul SA
8%
10 Keon Johnson BKN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
23%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 23.9 4.3 4.0
2 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.8 4.6 6.3
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 18.5 4.5 3.4
4 Stephon Castle SA 15.5 4.2 3.0
5 Keldon Johnson SA 13.3 4.1 2.4
6 D'Angelo Russell BKN 13.1 3.2 4.0
7 Devin Vassell SA 13.1 3.6 2.4
8 Nic Claxton BKN 13.0 8.1 2.2
9 Keon Johnson BKN 12.9 5.1 2.7
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.6 4.7 1.7
11 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.4 5.6 2.5
12 Trendon Watford BKN 10.1 3.7 3.1
13 Harrison Barnes SA 10.0 3.5 1.6
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.9 8.1 2.7
15 Chris Paul SA 8.9 2.6 5.9
16 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.4 3.3 1.9
17 Julian Champagnie SA 7.4 2.5 1.4
18 Tyrese Martin BKN 7.3 2.8 1.5
19 Bismack Biyombo SA 5.8 5.3 1.2
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.0 2.0 0.7
21 Dariq Whitehead BKN 4.4 1.6 0.7
22 Kendall Brown BKN 4.1 1.7 0.9
23 Blake Wesley SA 2.7 0.9 1.6
24 Malaki Branham SA 2.6 1.1 0.6
25 David Duke Jr. SA 2.5 1.2 0.9
26 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.3 0.8 1.0
27 Maxwell Lewis BKN 2.2 1.1 0.6
28 Harrison Ingram SA 1.1 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.