NBA games

PHI @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
112–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI22312732112
MIN24332643126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIN
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 39 30 3 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 24 3 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 36 18 7 0
Jared Butler 25 11 3 4
Paul George S 30 7 7 6
Lonnie Walker IV 22 6 2 1
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 11 5 3 2
Andre Drummond S 19 4 7 3
Alex Reese 4 3 0 0
Ricky Council IV 7 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid S 33 23 6 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27 20 3 3
Anthony Edwards S 30 18 5 1
Jaden McDaniels S 37 17 3 2
Julius Randle S 30 16 8 5
Donte DiVincenzo 23 12 2 8
Mike Conley S 25 12 7 6
Rob Dillingham 3 4 0 0
Leonard Miller 3 2 1 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 10 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes driving layup (Andre Drummond assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
11%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
5 Naz Reid MIN
10%
6 Paul George PHI
9%
7 Andre Drummond PHI
9%
8 Quentin Grimes PHI
8%
9 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
37%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.2 7.2 6.1
2 Naz Reid MIN 20.0 10.1 3.7
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN 19.1 8.0 3.5
4 Julius Randle MIN 18.4 7.5 5.3
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.1 6.1 1.7
6 Quentin Grimes PHI 17.1 5.7 3.6
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 16.9 4.8 5.2
8 Paul George PHI 15.8 4.8 3.6
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 13.9 4.3 3.7
10 Justin Edwards PHI 10.4 3.7 1.6
11 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 10.3 4.0 2.1
12 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 10.2 5.3 1.9
13 Mike Conley MIN 10.0 2.6 4.9
14 Andre Drummond PHI 8.5 7.8 1.4
15 Rob Dillingham MIN 6.4 1.9 2.7
16 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 6.1 2.4 1.4
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 6.0 2.1 1.2
18 Jared Butler PHI 5.9 2.0 2.4
19 Jesse Edwards MIN 5.3 2.7 0.9
20 Luka Garza MIN 4.5 2.6 0.8
21 Adem Bona PHI 4.3 3.5 0.5
22 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.2 1.7 1.6
23 Leonard Miller MIN 3.8 2.2 0.7
24 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.7 1.6 1.0
25 Alex Reese PHI 3.3 2.1 0.7
26 Josh Minott MIN 2.8 1.7 0.7
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.2 0.8 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.