NBA games

CLE @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
139–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE24333943139
CHI29293623117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home CHI
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 28 28 7 5
Jarrett Allen S 30 25 17 3
Darius Garland S 30 19 3 7
Ty Jerome 23 16 3 2
Max Strus S 25 11 3 5
Javonte Green 18 11 6 2
Sam Merrill 15 11 2 0
Dean Wade 20 6 4 0
De'Andre Hunter S 24 6 5 0
Isaac Okoro 20 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 39 25 4 7
Talen Horton-Tucker 31 22 4 6
Zach Collins S 28 20 12 2
Matas Buzelis S 31 17 7 3
Jalen Smith 18 13 11 0
Tre Jones S 34 9 8 7
Julian Phillips 20 4 0 1
Dalen Terry S 16 4 1 2
Jevon Carter 16 3 2 3
Jahmir Young 2 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Coby White makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Matas Buzelis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Coby White CHI
12%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
11%
6 Dalen Terry CHI
10%
7 Zach Collins CHI
10%
8 Max Strus CLE
9%
9 De'Andre Hunter CLE
8%
10 Ty Jerome CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
36%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.7 3.8 5.4
2 Darius Garland CLE 19.7 3.0 6.4
3 Coby White CHI 19.0 3.7 4.4
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE 16.7 4.4 1.9
5 Ty Jerome CLE 15.9 3.7 3.7
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.4 11.1 2.5
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.7 4.1 2.3
8 Max Strus CLE 10.9 4.3 3.2
9 Zach Collins CHI 8.7 5.6 1.8
10 Jalen Smith CHI 8.1 4.9 1.3
11 Sam Merrill CLE 7.5 2.7 1.3
12 Tre Jones CHI 7.5 1.8 2.4
13 Dean Wade CLE 6.3 4.0 1.8
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.4 2.8 1.1
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.2 2.1 2.3
16 Dalen Terry CHI 5.2 1.5 1.3
17 Julian Phillips CHI 5.0 2.5 0.6
18 Javonte Green CLE 4.7 3.1 1.0
19 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.6 2.2 1.2
20 Emanuel Miller CHI 4.5 1.9 0.5
21 Jevon Carter CHI 4.2 1.2 1.2
22 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 3.5 1.5 0.8
23 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.3 1.6 0.6
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.8 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.