NBA games

GS @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
114–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS25223532114
NY26292621102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home NY
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 33 28 7 9
Brandin Podziemski S 32 19 5 4
Jimmy Butler III S 35 19 4 4
Buddy Hield 23 15 6 0
Moses Moody S 27 9 4 2
Gui Santos 15 9 1 2
Draymond Green S 35 8 9 8
Quinten Post 15 3 3 0
Kevon Looney 14 2 4 0
Kevin Knox II 12 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 42 29 3 3
Jalen Brunson S 37 25 2 7
Mikal Bridges S 36 15 4 4
Precious Achiuwa 30 8 15 0
Mitchell Robinson S 15 7 5 0
Miles McBride 24 6 4 5
Landry Shamet 12 5 0 0
Cameron Payne 11 5 1 4
Josh Hart S 33 2 8 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes finger roll layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Hart NY
16%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Stephen Curry GS
10%
7 Draymond Green GS
10%
8 Moses Moody GS
9%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
10 Kevon Looney GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
24%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.6 3.7 6.4
2 Stephen Curry GS 24.3 4.3 6.3
3 Josh Hart NY 19.3 9.3 5.9
4 OG Anunoby NY 17.2 4.3 2.7
5 Jimmy Butler III GS 17.1 5.5 5.8
6 Mikal Bridges NY 14.0 3.7 3.5
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.9 6.1 4.0
8 Draymond Green GS 13.3 6.8 6.1
9 Moses Moody GS 11.6 3.4 1.3
10 Buddy Hield GS 9.8 3.2 1.7
11 Precious Achiuwa NY 9.6 6.3 1.4
12 Miles McBride NY 9.3 2.7 1.6
13 Quinten Post GS 8.3 4.0 1.3
14 Gary Payton II GS 6.7 2.4 1.4
15 Cameron Payne NY 6.5 1.4 3.0
16 Kevon Looney GS 4.9 5.6 1.1
17 Gui Santos GS 4.6 3.5 1.8
18 Landry Shamet NY 4.6 1.2 0.9
19 Kevin Knox II GS 4.3 2.1 0.6
20 Pat Spencer GS 3.7 2.0 0.9
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.1 2.0 0.7
22 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.8 0.7 0.4
23 Delon Wright NY 1.7 0.9 1.3
24 Tyler Kolek NY 1.0 0.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.