NBA games

MIL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
127–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL37292635127
ATL33332926121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home ATL
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 34 26 12 10
Damian Lillard S 36 23 5 4
Kyle Kuzma S 33 17 10 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 12 15 2 2
Gary Trent Jr. 25 15 0 2
Brook Lopez S 33 13 13 3
Taurean Prince S 29 8 2 2
AJ Green 23 8 4 1
Jericho Sims 15 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 35 28 2 13
Caris LeVert 29 21 3 4
Dyson Daniels S 34 16 9 6
Mouhamed Gueye S 25 15 5 1
Terance Mann 21 12 4 4
Clint Capela 21 8 8 1
Georges Niang 23 8 3 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 25 7 4 0
Onyeka Okongwu S 27 6 9 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
4 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
7 Trae Young ATL
8%
8 Damian Lillard MIL
7%
9 Dominick Barlow ATL
6%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
61%
Jumper
9%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.2 12.3 7.2
2 Damian Lillard MIL 23.4 4.5 6.3
3 Trae Young ATL 22.2 3.3 11.5
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 17.3 7.3 3.1
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.0 6.7 5.0
6 Brook Lopez MIL 15.8 6.2 2.1
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.6 10.3 3.3
8 Caris LeVert ATL 14.8 4.3 2.5
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 14.1 4.4 2.0
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 13.8 3.2 2.2
11 Georges Niang ATL 11.6 4.3 1.6
12 Taurean Prince MIL 10.4 3.7 2.0
13 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 8.8 2.9 2.9
14 AJ Green MIL 8.2 2.4 1.6
15 Clint Capela ATL 8.2 7.2 1.0
16 Terance Mann ATL 7.9 2.7 2.1
17 Keaton Wallace ATL 7.4 2.0 2.5
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.4 2.6 0.9
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.3 3.5 0.7
20 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.7 1.5 1.4
21 Dominick Barlow ATL 4.5 2.8 0.6
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.6 1.9 0.8
23 Tyler Smith MIL 3.0 1.2 0.5
24 Jericho Sims MIL 2.9 3.2 0.7
25 Chris Livingston MIL 1.4 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.