NBA games

TOR @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR22273134114
ORL22321940113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home ORL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 32 21 8 9
Ja'Kobe Walter S 28 17 3 0
Scottie Barnes S 30 17 13 5
Jakob Poeltl S 24 17 7 2
Immanuel Quickley S 26 15 4 4
A.J. Lawson 26 13 2 1
Jamal Shead 22 8 1 5
Jared Rhoden 21 4 2 0
Orlando Robinson 24 2 5 2
Jonathan Mogbo 7 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 40 41 8 8
Franz Wagner S 36 28 5 1
Tristan da Silva 28 12 3 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 27 12 2 3
Cory Joseph S 26 8 1 5
Anthony Black 15 5 2 1
Jonathan Isaac 18 3 3 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 24 2 6 3
Goga Bitadze 16 2 5 3
Jett Howard 10 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
9 Cole Anthony ORL
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
40%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 26.0 6.6 4.9
2 Franz Wagner ORL 24.6 6.2 4.0
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.7 5.2 5.9
4 RJ Barrett TOR 22.1 5.4 5.1
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.5 6.8 5.2
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.8 4.3 5.4
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.5 8.3 3.4
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.9 8.0 1.7
9 Cole Anthony ORL 10.6 4.0 3.0
10 Anthony Black ORL 10.2 3.6 2.3
11 Jamal Shead TOR 7.2 1.8 3.6
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.1 2.8 1.4
13 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 7.0 4.1 1.8
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.9 3.7 1.1
15 Orlando Robinson TOR 6.6 5.0 1.7
16 Chris Boucher TOR 6.0 4.1 0.7
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.8 5.2 0.9
18 Jett Howard ORL 4.8 1.6 1.3
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.3 4.4 0.7
20 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.3 1.9 0.8
21 Mac McClung ORL 3.5 1.6 1.1
22 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.2 1.2 0.5
23 Trevelin Queen ORL 3.1 1.8 0.5
24 Cory Joseph ORL 3.0 1.2 0.6
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.7 1.2 0.4
26 Gary Harris ORL 2.3 1.1 0.5
27 Jared Rhoden TOR 1.2 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.