NBA games

HOU @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
102–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU30272619102
IND30372325115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home IND
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 35 25 9 7
Tari Eason 26 16 14 4
Amen Thompson S 40 13 12 4
Dillon Brooks S 29 13 4 2
Jalen Green S 33 12 4 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 12 9 0
Reed Sheppard 15 4 1 2
Steven Adams 15 3 3 1
Cam Whitmore 7 3 1 0
Nate Williams 2 1 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 28 3 15
Pascal Siakam S 31 18 2 2
Myles Turner S 26 16 4 1
Aaron Nesmith S 34 16 5 0
Obi Toppin 16 13 5 1
Thomas Bryant 21 10 5 1
Andrew Nembhard S 35 5 6 6
Ben Sheppard 15 5 3 3
T.J. McConnell 13 2 1 3
Jarace Walker 10 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
3 Jalen Green HOU
9%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
6 Cam Whitmore HOU
7%
7 Amen Thompson HOU
7%
8 Myles Turner IND
7%
9 Jock Landale HOU
7%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
38%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 23.6 4.6 4.6
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.3 3.9 10.4
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.2 9.6 3.7
4 Pascal Siakam IND 16.6 5.6 2.4
5 Myles Turner IND 15.8 4.9 2.4
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.4 4.1 2.0
7 Amen Thompson HOU 15.1 8.9 5.2
8 Tari Eason HOU 13.3 6.5 1.9
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.8 4.1 2.3
10 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.6 3.1 5.0
11 Obi Toppin IND 11.3 4.3 1.9
12 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.2 3.9 1.8
13 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.0 5.7 1.3
14 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.8 2.7 4.1
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.5 3.7 1.4
16 Thomas Bryant IND 9.1 5.6 1.8
17 T.J. McConnell IND 8.8 2.2 4.7
18 Jeff Green HOU 7.9 2.4 1.1
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.0 2.4 1.6
20 Ben Sheppard IND 6.9 3.1 1.2
21 Jock Landale HOU 6.0 3.8 1.1
22 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.8 2.0 1.2
23 Steven Adams HOU 5.3 5.7 1.1
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.3 2.6 1.1
25 Nate Williams HOU 4.2 1.6 0.8
26 Jarace Walker IND 3.2 1.9 0.9
27 Johnny Furphy IND 2.4 1.5 0.5
28 James Johnson IND 2.4 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.