NBA games

DET @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
134–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET36313136134
UTAH22253029106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home UTAH
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 30 29 1 9
Ausar Thompson S 30 17 6 5
Jalen Duren S 30 16 12 2
Malik Beasley S 33 15 1 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 31 13 7 3
Simone Fontecchio 22 10 4 1
Ronald Holland II 18 8 1 2
Lindy Waters III 5 8 0 0
Dennis Schroder 17 7 3 4
Paul Reed 17 6 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Filipowski 24 25 8 1
Collin Sexton S 20 16 1 3
Walker Kessler S 28 14 9 1
Keyonte George 29 12 3 3
Isaiah Collier S 32 11 3 2
Johnny Juzang S 23 8 4 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 15 8 2 4
Cody Williams 16 6 1 3
KJ Martin S 18 5 2 0
Oscar Tshiebwe 6 1 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Johnny Juzang · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Johnny Juzang makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
2 Tobias Harris DET
10%
3 Jalen Duren DET
10%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
7%
9 KJ Martin UTAH
7%
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.3 5.6 9.2
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.6 3.4 5.0
3 Tobias Harris DET 18.3 5.8 2.5
4 Malik Beasley DET 17.9 3.2 2.1
5 Keyonte George UTAH 17.5 3.9 6.2
6 Jalen Duren DET 14.3 11.3 4.3
7 Ausar Thompson DET 13.6 5.7 4.4
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 12.4 3.9 7.8
9 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.3 11.5 2.5
10 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 11.6 5.8 2.8
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.8 3.0 1.3
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.4 2.8 2.1
13 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.7 2.4 1.5
14 Dennis Schroder DET 8.4 2.9 4.3
15 KJ Martin UTAH 7.8 3.7 1.4
16 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.6 2.3 1.0
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.1 5.2 1.5
18 Ronald Holland II DET 5.9 2.5 1.3
19 Cody Williams UTAH 5.9 2.4 1.3
20 Marcus Sasser DET 5.7 1.4 2.6
21 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.3 3.2 1.2
22 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 5.0 5.5 0.5
23 Paul Reed DET 4.3 3.8 0.9
24 Jaden Springer UTAH 4.0 1.6 1.0
25 Lindy Waters III DET 3.1 1.3 0.9
26 Elijah Harkless UTAH 2.6 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.