NBA games

SAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
122–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC27333428122
DAL2426163298

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DAL
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 29 22 3 2
DeMar DeRozan S 30 20 2 4
Keegan Murray S 25 18 5 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 14 9 3
Malik Monk S 23 13 1 8
Trey Lyles 20 9 9 6
Jake LaRavia 28 8 4 2
Doug McDermott 5 6 0 0
Markelle Fultz 16 6 1 4
Isaac Jones 9 6 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kai Jones 34 21 8 0
Naji Marshall 30 18 5 6
Spencer Dinwiddie 27 10 3 6
Max Christie 29 10 5 4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 17 8 4 1
Jaden Hardy 16 8 2 2
Kyrie Irving S 9 7 1 1
Kessler Edwards S 22 6 4 4
Dante Exum S 22 5 0 4
Klay Thompson S 25 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes 2-foot two point shot (Malik Monk assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
16%
2 Malik Monk SAC
14%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
4 Zach LaVine SAC
14%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
6 Max Christie DAL
11%
7 Caleb Martin DAL
10%
8 Klay Thompson DAL
10%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
0%
10 Jonas Valanciunas SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
36%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.3 4.8 5.3
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.3 5.0 4.2
3 Zach LaVine SAC 24.0 4.3 4.6
4 Malik Monk SAC 18.8 4.9 6.2
5 Klay Thompson DAL 14.7 4.0 2.2
6 Max Christie DAL 13.9 3.8 3.7
7 Keegan Murray SAC 13.1 6.2 2.0
8 Naji Marshall DAL 12.6 5.9 3.1
9 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 11.4 2.3 3.3
10 Keon Ellis SAC 10.6 3.6 1.6
11 Caleb Martin DAL 10.3 4.2 2.0
12 Dante Exum DAL 9.4 2.1 3.3
13 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 8.5 7.2 1.4
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.5 1.6 1.2
15 Trey Lyles SAC 5.0 3.0 1.1
16 Markelle Fultz SAC 4.9 1.5 1.0
17 Kessler Edwards DAL 4.9 3.5 1.2
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.5 2.3 1.1
19 Jake LaRavia SAC 4.3 2.7 1.2
20 Jae Crowder SAC 4.1 2.3 0.7
21 Skal Labissiere SAC 2.7 1.3 0.7
22 Doug McDermott SAC 2.6 0.7 0.4
23 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 2.7 0.9
24 Isaac Jones SAC 2.4 1.4 0.4
25 Kai Jones DAL 1.8 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.