NBA games

HOU @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
128–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU31312739128
OKC30333935137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home OKC
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Whitmore S 40 27 11 3
Reed Sheppard S 31 25 2 5
Jalen Green S 25 18 6 4
Aaron Holiday 19 14 1 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 28 11 8 1
N'Faly Dante 19 10 9 1
Nate Williams 23 6 1 0
Jock Landale S 21 6 3 1
Jack McVeigh 7 6 0 0
Jeff Green 16 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 51 5 7
Jalen Williams S 32 24 4 3
Cason Wallace 32 14 5 4
Chet Holmgren S 30 11 11 3
Luguentz Dort S 29 11 0 2
Aaron Wiggins 25 8 7 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 8 5 6
Kenrich Williams 17 7 7 2
Jaylin Williams 9 3 2 1
Alex Caruso 5 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
16%
2 Jalen Green HOU
14%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
8 Amen Thompson HOU
8%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
38%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 26.3 5.1 6.3
2 Jalen Green HOU 23.3 4.6 4.7
3 Jalen Williams OKC 21.5 5.0 5.5
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.0 9.7 3.6
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC 16.3 4.6 2.1
6 Amen Thompson HOU 15.0 9.0 5.1
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.2 7.4 1.6
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.7 4.2 2.2
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.6 6.0 1.3
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.1 9.8 3.3
11 Cason Wallace OKC 9.9 3.2 2.3
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.8 3.2 1.5
13 Alex Caruso OKC 8.3 3.0 2.9
14 Jeff Green HOU 7.7 2.5 0.9
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.9 2.6 1.1
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.8 2.4 1.3
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.9 2.4 1.5
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.8 2.7 1.7
19 Steven Adams HOU 5.3 5.8 1.0
20 Jock Landale HOU 4.7 3.4 0.8
21 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.6 5.0 1.9
22 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.7 1.6 0.6
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.6 2.0 1.1
24 Dillon Jones OKC 3.3 2.1 1.5
25 Alex Ducas OKC 3.3 1.7 0.6
26 Jack McVeigh HOU 3.2 1.5 0.5
27 N'Faly Dante HOU 2.9 2.5 0.5
28 Nate Williams HOU 2.9 1.2 0.5
29 Branden Carlson OKC 2.8 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.