NBA games

ATL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
132–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL28423131132
MEM34314223130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MEM
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zaccharie Risacher S 32 27 1 0
Caris LeVert 32 25 3 5
Onyeka Okongwu S 32 16 12 2
Dyson Daniels S 33 14 3 7
Trae Young S 36 12 2 15
Clint Capela 16 11 4 1
Garrison Mathews 14 11 2 1
Terance Mann 29 7 2 3
Dominick Barlow S 13 6 2 0
Keaton Wallace 3 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 36 35 10 10
Luke Kennard S 35 17 3 7
Vince Williams Jr. 25 15 3 3
Zach Edey S 27 15 5 2
Jaylen Wells S 33 12 2 6
Brandon Clarke 21 11 7 1
GG Jackson 28 11 7 3
Scotty Pippen Jr. 16 9 4 4
John Konchar 15 5 1 0
Lamar Stevens 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
15%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
13%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
5 Trae Young ATL
11%
6 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
9 John Konchar MEM
7%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
45%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 24.1 3.0 12.2
2 Desmond Bane MEM 23.2 7.3 5.7
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.3 5.4 2.6
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.9 10.1 3.7
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.3 7.2 5.3
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.5 4.2 1.8
7 Caris LeVert ATL 12.5 4.0 2.1
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.9 3.1 1.4
9 GG Jackson MEM 9.0 2.6 1.4
10 Luke Kennard MEM 8.3 2.7 3.2
11 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.3 4.9 1.3
12 Terance Mann ATL 7.3 2.8 1.8
13 Keaton Wallace ATL 7.3 1.9 2.7
14 Clint Capela ATL 6.8 7.5 1.1
15 Zach Edey MEM 6.5 6.9 0.9
16 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.3 3.4 1.9
17 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.3 2.4 2.3
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.8 3.8 0.9
19 Lamar Stevens MEM 5.1 3.4 1.0
20 Cam Spencer MEM 4.6 1.6 1.4
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.1 1.8 0.6
22 Marvin Bagley III MEM 3.9 2.6 0.4
23 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.7 2.4 0.6
24 Jay Huff MEM 3.0 1.4 0.7
25 John Konchar MEM 2.9 1.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.