NBA games

WSH @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
90–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2412322290
MIA32232625106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIA
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton S 23 16 3 3
Bub Carrington S 35 14 5 7
Kyshawn George S 32 10 8 5
Alex Sarr S 25 9 4 3
Marcus Smart 19 8 1 1
Corey Kispert 21 8 2 0
Richaun Holmes 20 7 8 2
Justin Champagnie 22 7 8 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 33 3 3 0
AJ Johnson 4 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 31 19 15 5
Duncan Robinson 30 17 3 1
Pelle Larsson 28 16 4 5
Tyler Herro S 26 16 3 6
Terry Rozier S 35 15 5 5
Alec Burks S 26 9 3 1
Haywood Highsmith 26 8 3 2
Kyle Anderson 25 4 3 5
Kevin Love S 12 2 9 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Khris Middleton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Khris Middleton makes 19-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
18%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
4 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
7 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
10 Alex Sarr WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
22%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.3 4.1 6.6
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.4 9.7 3.7
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.0 4.7 3.8
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 14.3 5.0 4.7
5 Bub Carrington WSH 13.1 4.3 4.7
6 Corey Kispert WSH 13.1 3.5 2.3
7 Nikola Jovic MIA 12.6 3.6 3.1
8 Khris Middleton WSH 12.4 3.9 3.6
9 Richaun Holmes WSH 12.0 7.4 1.9
10 Alex Sarr WSH 11.5 6.4 1.8
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.4 2.5 4.5
12 Terry Rozier MIA 11.3 3.3 2.2
13 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.2 9.6 1.8
14 Kyshawn George WSH 10.9 5.5 3.4
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.9 2.7 3.1
16 Alec Burks MIA 7.4 3.6 1.4
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.3 3.3 1.8
18 Marcus Smart WSH 7.2 1.9 1.9
19 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 6.9 3.4 0.9
20 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.7 3.6 1.8
21 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.3 4.2 0.8
22 Kyle Anderson MIA 4.7 2.9 1.3
23 Kevin Love MIA 3.3 1.9 0.8
24 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.4 1.0 0.5
25 AJ Johnson WSH 2.1 0.7 0.7
26 Anthony Gill WSH 1.2 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.