NBA games

POR @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
119–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR29273528119
PHI32292021102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home PHI
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 32 34 4 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 37 20 11 5
Donovan Clingan S 29 13 13 2
Duop Reath 18 13 5 2
Toumani Camara S 33 11 9 1
Deni Avdija S 33 9 6 4
Scoot Henderson 22 7 3 6
Jabari Walker 9 6 3 0
Kris Murray 14 4 6 2
Dalano Banton 9 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andre Drummond S 29 25 18 1
Justin Edwards S 37 16 6 1
Quentin Grimes S 38 14 6 9
Lonnie Walker IV 28 13 3 2
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 19 11 2 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 35 9 3 3
Adem Bona 7 6 2 0
Tyrese Maxey S 23 5 0 6
Ricky Council IV 18 3 2 2
Jared Butler 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Quentin Grimes · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Quentin Grimes makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
4 Deni Avdija POR
10%
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
6 Paul George PHI
9%
7 Quentin Grimes PHI
8%
8 Jerami Grant POR
7%
9 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
34%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.1 3.8 6.4
2 Anfernee Simons POR 22.5 3.3 5.7
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.3 4.4 3.9
4 Deni Avdija POR 17.9 5.9 4.4
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.6 5.9 1.6
6 Quentin Grimes PHI 16.8 5.0 2.9
7 Paul George PHI 16.2 4.6 3.5
8 Toumani Camara POR 14.2 6.7 3.1
9 Scoot Henderson POR 14.2 3.3 5.5
10 Jerami Grant POR 13.8 3.8 2.4
11 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.2 5.4 1.8
12 Justin Edwards PHI 10.0 3.5 1.7
13 Donovan Clingan POR 8.8 8.5 1.3
14 Dalano Banton POR 8.1 2.5 2.1
15 Jabari Walker POR 7.1 4.4 1.3
16 Andre Drummond PHI 6.9 6.5 1.3
17 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 5.6 2.2 1.3
18 Kris Murray POR 5.1 2.6 1.0
19 Jared Butler PHI 4.8 1.7 2.0
20 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.9 1.6 1.9
21 Duop Reath POR 3.8 1.9 0.7
22 Adem Bona PHI 3.1 3.1 0.3
23 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.0 1.0 0.8
24 Sidy Cissoko POR 2.8 1.2 0.6
25 Rayan Rupert POR 2.6 1.4 0.7
26 Bryce McGowens POR 1.6 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.