NBA games

GS @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
119–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS28302833119
CHA21282824101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home CHA
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield 31 22 5 2
Stephen Curry S 30 21 3 10
Brandin Podziemski S 32 19 11 2
Draymond Green S 28 16 12 7
Jimmy Butler III S 31 13 3 4
Gary Payton II 10 9 2 0
Quinten Post 17 6 3 2
Moses Moody S 21 5 5 0
Kevon Looney 14 4 6 3
Kevin Knox II 2 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 34 35 9 3
LaMelo Ball S 34 25 9 7
Mark Williams S 31 12 13 1
Tidjane Salaun 15 10 2 0
Nick Smith Jr. S 29 6 0 1
Damion Baugh 28 6 2 6
Jusuf Nurkic 15 5 5 2
Josh Green S 26 2 1 0
Seth Curry 8 0 1 0
DaQuan Jeffries 16 0 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jimmy Butler III makes 15-foot jumper (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mark Williams CHA
12%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
12%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Draymond Green GS
9%
5 Stephen Curry GS
8%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
7 Moses Moody GS
7%
8 LaMelo Ball CHA
7%
9 Josh Green CHA
7%
10 Jusuf Nurkic CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
24%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
28%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.0 4.8 5.8
2 Miles Bridges CHA 21.7 7.5 4.0
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 18.6 4.6 5.8
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 16.3 5.8 5.9
5 Mark Williams CHA 15.8 10.3 2.2
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.7 6.1 4.7
7 Draymond Green GS 13.2 6.4 6.2
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 13.1 2.9 3.6
9 Moses Moody GS 12.6 3.7 1.6
10 Buddy Hield GS 10.0 3.5 2.0
11 Damion Baugh CHA 9.9 3.1 3.6
12 Josh Green CHA 9.3 2.5 1.9
13 Quinten Post GS 8.6 4.0 1.4
14 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.5 6.6 1.3
15 Gary Payton II GS 7.0 2.6 1.5
16 Seth Curry CHA 7.0 2.2 1.1
17 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 6.9 6.9 3.5
18 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.4 4.1 1.1
19 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.6 2.7 1.5
20 Gui Santos GS 5.3 3.7 1.5
21 Kevon Looney GS 4.9 5.6 1.1
22 Kevin Knox II GS 4.6 2.3 0.7
23 Pat Spencer GS 3.9 2.4 1.0
24 Malachi Flynn CHA 3.4 1.2 1.2
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.8 2.0 0.6
26 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 2.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.