NBA games

LAC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
102–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC28153425102
LAL34223319108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home LAL
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 40 33 10 0
Kris Dunn S 27 15 2 4
James Harden S 38 13 2 8
Ivica Zubac S 34 12 10 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic 31 12 4 3
Nicolas Batum 16 6 1 0
Drew Eubanks 12 4 5 2
Norman Powell S 9 4 1 1
Amir Coffey 22 3 3 3
Kobe Brown 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 37 29 6 9
Dalton Knecht 25 19 4 0
LeBron James S 36 17 5 9
Dorian Finney-Smith S 37 11 4 0
Gabe Vincent S 31 9 3 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 22 8 9 1
Jaxson Hayes S 26 6 7 0
Shake Milton 8 6 1 0
Trey Jemison III 18 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dorian Finney-Smith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Dorian Finney-Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
15%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
5 Norman Powell LAC
11%
6 James Harden LAC
11%
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL
10%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
7%
10 Nicolas Batum LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
40%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 28.3 10.3 7.1
2 Luka Doncic LAL 24.9 8.2 7.0
3 James Harden LAC 21.8 5.7 8.4
4 Norman Powell LAC 21.3 3.9 2.8
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC 20.3 5.7 4.0
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.3 11.4 2.6
7 Amir Coffey LAC 11.2 2.6 1.4
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.7 2.7 2.5
9 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.2 5.4 1.4
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.1 3.9 2.0
11 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.9 1.7 1.9
12 Kris Dunn LAC 7.8 5.2 3.7
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 5.7 1.8 0.8
14 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.9 4.5 1.1
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.1 2.4 0.7
16 Cam Reddish LAL 4.1 2.1 0.9
17 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.6 2.7 0.4
18 Trey Jemison III LAL 3.6 3.2 0.5
19 Shake Milton LAL 3.3 1.6 1.0
20 Patty Mills LAC 2.7 0.9 0.6
21 Markieff Morris LAL 2.2 0.8 0.6
22 Jordan Miller LAC 1.9 0.9 0.6
23 Bronny James LAL 1.9 0.7 0.5
24 Alex Len LAL 1.5 1.6 0.5
25 Kobe Brown LAC 1.4 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.