NBA games

MIN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
116–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28213433116
PHX3417212698

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home PHX
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 44 5 7
Donte DiVincenzo 27 24 2 2
Julius Randle S 34 20 6 3
Jaden McDaniels S 33 13 7 4
Naz Reid S 39 7 10 5
Mike Conley S 20 3 1 1
Jaylen Clark 11 3 2 0
Leonard Miller 2 2 0 0
Josh Minott 2 0 0 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 26 10 4
Bradley Beal S 33 18 4 3
Devin Booker S 35 17 4 5
Tyus Jones 17 10 1 1
Bol Bol S 25 9 11 3
Ryan Dunn 11 5 3 1
Grayson Allen 15 5 2 1
Mason Plumlee 21 4 7 2
Nick Richards S 25 4 8 2
Damion Lee 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
11%
2 Naz Reid MIN
10%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
8%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
6 Nick Richards PHX
8%
7 Bol Bol PHX
7%
8 Anthony Edwards MIN
6%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
6%
10 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
23%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.4 7.5 5.8
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.4 4.1 7.9
3 Bradley Beal PHX 22.8 4.2 5.0
4 Kevin Durant PHX 22.6 5.2 4.4
5 Naz Reid MIN 21.2 9.8 3.9
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.8 8.0 3.6
7 Julius Randle MIN 18.0 8.1 5.2
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 15.3 4.8 5.1
9 Bol Bol PHX 13.8 5.7 1.4
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 13.5 4.2 3.1
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.2 3.9 2.0
12 Grayson Allen PHX 10.7 3.2 2.7
13 Tyus Jones PHX 10.2 3.2 5.8
14 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 10.1 3.9 2.2
15 Mike Conley MIN 9.6 2.5 5.4
16 Nick Richards PHX 9.3 10.0 0.9
17 Vasilije Micic PHX 8.9 2.4 3.4
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 6.5 2.0 1.2
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 6.1 1.8 2.7
20 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.7 5.8 1.6
21 Luka Garza MIN 4.4 2.5 0.8
22 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.2 1.6 1.1
23 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.8 2.4 0.6
24 Damion Lee PHX 2.9 0.8 0.4
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.6 1.6 0.4
26 Oso Ighodaro PHX 2.5 1.8 0.8
27 Monte Morris PHX 2.3 0.8 1.1
28 Joe Ingles MIN 2.2 0.8 1.2
29 Josh Minott MIN 1.8 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.