NBA games

NO @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
128121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO30362537128
UTAH26313430121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home UTAH
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Olynyk S 26 26 9 4
CJ McCollum S 33 25 3 8
Zion Williamson S 29 24 6 9
Trey Murphy III S 36 20 6 6
Jordan Hawkins 22 8 4 3
Bruce Brown 22 8 8 2
Yves Missi S 28 8 7 0
Karlo Matkovic 20 6 5 1
Jose Alvarado 24 3 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George 31 28 3 6
Brice Sensabaugh S 31 21 2 4
Oscar Tshiebwe 20 16 13 1
Kyle Filipowski S 28 12 11 7
Isaiah Collier S 29 11 2 8
Johnny Juzang S 18 8 2 1
Micah Potter 22 8 6 3
Jaden Springer 18 7 0 3
Cody Williams 17 5 0 1
KJ Martin S 26 5 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Murphy III · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
16%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
15%
3 Zion Williamson NO
12%
4 Yves Missi NO
11%
5 Bruce Brown NO
8%
6 Isaiah Collier UTAH
8%
7 Jordan Hawkins NO
8%
8 Johnny Juzang UTAH
8%
9 Kelly Olynyk NO
7%
10 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
35%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 26.8 7.4 6.2
2 CJ McCollum NO 22.9 4.5 4.3
3 Trey Murphy III NO 21.3 5.3 6.6
4 Keyonte George UTAH 19.0 4.1 6.9
5 Isaiah Collier UTAH 13.5 4.4 9.8
6 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 12.5 6.1 2.7
7 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 11.4 3.3 1.7
8 Jose Alvarado NO 11.1 3.7 5.7
9 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.1 3.3 2.0
10 Yves Missi NO 10.7 9.2 1.3
11 Kelly Olynyk NO 10.6 6.4 3.3
12 Karlo Matkovic NO 10.4 5.7 1.4
13 KJ Martin UTAH 9.5 4.2 1.5
14 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.5 2.5 1.4
15 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 8.1 4.6 1.4
16 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.9 2.4 1.1
17 Cody Williams UTAH 6.5 2.9 1.7
18 Bruce Brown NO 6.4 2.9 1.7
19 Micah Potter UTAH 5.6 3.4 0.8
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.3 2.9 0.9
21 Jaden Springer UTAH 4.9 1.9 1.1
22 Antonio Reeves NO 4.6 1.8 1.1
23 Jamal Cain NO 3.1 1.7 0.8
24 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 2.8 4.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.