NBA games

OKC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
146–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC41313638146
SA38392332132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SA
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 33 41 6 7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 32 31 4 8
Cason Wallace S 35 19 3 4
Aaron Wiggins 24 17 3 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 29 10 11 6
Alex Caruso 20 10 1 2
Luguentz Dort S 24 9 9 2
Ousmane Dieng 16 7 2 1
Jaylin Williams 13 2 3 1
Alex Ducas 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle 32 32 8 3
De'Aaron Fox S 34 20 4 4
Jeremy Sochan 25 17 4 4
Devin Vassell S 33 15 3 5
Harrison Barnes S 29 14 1 2
Julian Champagnie 11 8 0 2
Keldon Johnson 19 7 6 5
Chris Paul S 28 6 3 6
Sandro Mamukelashvili 2 5 0 0
Jordan McLaughlin 2 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
15%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
14%
3 Harrison Barnes SA
12%
4 Bismack Biyombo SA
12%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
6 Chris Paul SA
9%
7 Devin Vassell SA
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
9%
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
22%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 25.9 5.1 6.2
2 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.9 4.5 6.5
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.5 5.2 5.7
4 Aaron Wiggins OKC 17.3 4.8 2.2
5 Devin Vassell SA 13.0 3.8 2.1
6 Stephon Castle SA 13.0 4.2 2.8
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.6 3.8 2.0
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.5 9.7 3.0
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.3 3.1 1.5
10 Harrison Barnes SA 10.0 3.9 1.5
11 Cason Wallace OKC 9.9 3.6 2.1
12 Jeremy Sochan SA 9.9 6.1 2.1
13 Chris Paul SA 9.1 2.5 6.1
14 Alex Caruso OKC 7.8 3.4 2.9
15 Julian Champagnie SA 7.4 2.7 1.4
16 Bismack Biyombo SA 6.9 6.0 1.1
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.1 2.9 1.7
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.6 5.5 2.0
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.7 2.2 0.7
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.5 1.9 1.1
21 Dillon Jones OKC 3.0 2.0 1.4
22 Alex Ducas OKC 2.3 1.2 0.4
23 Blake Wesley SA 2.3 0.8 1.6
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.1 0.7 0.9
25 Malaki Branham SA 2.1 0.9 0.5
26 David Duke Jr. SA 1.8 0.9 0.6
27 Harrison Ingram SA 1.2 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.