NBA games

TOR @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
104–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR27213323104
ORL19282530102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home ORL
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 33 24 2 4
RJ Barrett S 33 22 5 5
Jakob Poeltl S 26 16 11 3
Jamal Shead 17 12 2 4
Scottie Barnes S 29 10 3 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 31 7 4 1
Orlando Robinson 21 6 7 0
Jonathan Mogbo 19 5 5 1
Gradey Dick S 16 2 1 0
A.J. Lawson 14 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 37 25 4 1
Paolo Banchero S 39 23 4 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 14 9 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 39 12 3 1
Cole Anthony S 23 7 1 1
Anthony Black 14 7 1 2
Cory Joseph 10 5 2 0
Jett Howard 14 5 1 0
Tristan da Silva 6 2 2 0
Goga Bitadze 16 1 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes driving layup (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
10 Cole Anthony ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
49%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 26.2 6.3 5.5
2 Franz Wagner ORL 26.0 6.4 4.3
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.4 5.2 5.9
4 RJ Barrett TOR 21.5 5.5 5.2
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.4 6.7 5.3
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.6 4.3 5.8
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.0 7.5 3.1
8 Cole Anthony ORL 11.8 4.1 3.2
9 Anthony Black ORL 11.0 3.7 2.5
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.6 7.8 1.7
11 Gradey Dick TOR 10.4 4.6 1.5
12 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 7.9 4.1 2.1
13 Jamal Shead TOR 7.7 1.9 3.6
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.6 3.6 1.2
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.1 2.8 1.4
16 Chris Boucher TOR 6.6 4.3 0.9
17 Orlando Robinson TOR 6.1 4.1 1.7
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.9 6.0 1.0
19 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.1 1.9 1.1
20 Jett Howard ORL 4.6 1.6 1.4
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.5 4.2 0.8
22 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.9 1.3 0.5
23 Gary Harris ORL 2.5 1.2 0.6
24 A.J. Lawson TOR 2.2 0.8 0.3
25 Cory Joseph ORL 1.7 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.