NBA games

NY @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
116–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
NY2223362411116
MIA273525187112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 42 31 5 6
OG Anunoby S 43 23 9 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 40 19 16 0
Josh Hart S 43 14 7 3
Miles McBride 30 12 2 2
Mikal Bridges S 28 5 4 8
Landry Shamet 14 5 0 0
Cameron Payne 10 5 1 3
Mitchell Robinson 13 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 42 30 7 4
Tyler Herro S 41 22 4 7
Kel'el Ware S 29 12 8 0
Alec Burks S 25 12 3 3
Davion Mitchell S 37 11 4 5
Duncan Robinson 32 10 3 5
Haywood Highsmith 37 8 2 1
Terry Rozier 16 5 1 3
Kyle Anderson 6 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 11-foot jumper (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
14%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
3 Josh Hart NY
11%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
7 OG Anunoby NY
8%
8 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
9 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
19%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 25.6 4.5 6.8
2 Jalen Brunson NY 24.4 3.4 6.3
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.5 10.2 3.7
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.5 10.5 2.5
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.2 4.9 3.9
6 Josh Hart NY 19.2 9.2 6.0
7 Mikal Bridges NY 16.1 3.8 3.4
8 OG Anunoby NY 15.2 4.2 2.3
9 Nikola Jovic MIA 12.7 3.6 3.2
10 Terry Rozier MIA 11.6 3.3 2.3
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.3 2.3 4.1
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.5 9.7 1.9
13 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.4 2.6 2.8
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 9.6 6.5 1.4
15 Miles McBride NY 9.2 2.7 1.6
16 Alec Burks MIA 7.1 3.7 1.2
17 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.7 3.7 1.8
18 Cameron Payne NY 6.6 1.5 3.0
19 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.5 3.3 1.8
20 Kyle Anderson MIA 4.8 3.0 1.2
21 Landry Shamet NY 4.5 1.4 0.9
22 Kevin Love MIA 3.4 1.9 0.8
23 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.7 1.3 0.7
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.1 0.9 0.4
25 Delon Wright NY 1.9 1.1 1.3
26 Tyler Kolek NY 1.2 0.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.