NBA games

CHI @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
112–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI31362520112
IND32342932127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home IND
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 34 26 7 1
Matas Buzelis S 30 18 6 3
Josh Giddey S 34 18 9 7
Zach Collins S 29 16 5 2
Tre Jones 27 11 0 6
Jalen Smith 18 10 6 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 15 6 3 1
Julian Phillips 20 3 4 0
Jevon Carter 14 2 1 1
Dalen Terry S 19 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith S 29 27 5 1
Pascal Siakam S 31 20 6 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 31 17 5 12
Myles Turner S 31 16 6 2
T.J. McConnell 16 11 1 6
Andrew Nembhard S 37 11 2 4
Ben Sheppard 21 9 4 2
Thomas Bryant 16 7 2 0
Obi Toppin 16 6 5 1
Jarace Walker 9 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Collins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Zach Collins makes 13-foot jumper (Dalen Terry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
3 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
4 Coby White CHI
10%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
7 Lonzo Ball CHI
10%
8 Zach Collins CHI
9%
9 Myles Turner IND
9%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
30%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Josh Giddey CHI 22.2 7.7 6.5
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.0 3.7 10.2
3 Coby White CHI 19.2 3.5 5.2
4 Pascal Siakam IND 16.9 5.8 2.7
5 Myles Turner IND 16.5 5.0 2.6
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.8 4.1 2.1
7 Obi Toppin IND 11.1 4.2 1.9
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.0 3.3 4.2
9 Lonzo Ball CHI 10.8 3.5 2.3
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 9.9 3.9 2.0
11 Thomas Bryant IND 9.4 5.9 2.2
12 Kevin Huerter CHI 8.8 2.4 2.1
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.7 2.3 5.1
14 Jalen Smith CHI 8.2 5.2 1.2
15 Zach Collins CHI 7.6 5.4 1.7
16 Tre Jones CHI 7.3 1.9 2.6
17 Ben Sheppard IND 7.3 3.4 1.3
18 Dalen Terry CHI 5.7 1.9 1.6
19 Julian Phillips CHI 5.5 2.4 0.7
20 Jevon Carter CHI 3.6 1.0 0.9
21 Jarace Walker IND 3.5 2.1 1.0
22 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 2.5 1.0 0.6
23 Johnny Furphy IND 2.2 1.4 0.6
24 James Johnson IND 1.6 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.