NBA games

POR @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
129–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
POR2727353010129
CLE2418374014133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home CLE
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 42 30 12 10
Anfernee Simons S 42 27 2 2
Toumani Camara S 43 19 5 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 39 18 6 2
Scoot Henderson 33 15 4 6
Duop Reath 21 7 5 0
Dalano Banton 17 7 4 1
Donovan Clingan S 11 4 3 2
Jabari Walker 8 2 2 0
Kris Murray 10 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter S 32 32 7 0
Ty Jerome 36 25 5 6
Evan Mobley S 32 20 8 3
Max Strus S 36 14 8 3
Darius Garland S 39 13 2 7
Jarrett Allen S 26 12 10 4
Sam Merrill 21 9 2 1
Dean Wade 20 5 1 1
Isaac Okoro 19 3 3 0
Craig Porter Jr. 5 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shaedon Sharpe · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Shaedon Sharpe makes 15-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
2 Deni Avdija POR
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
5 Max Strus CLE
9%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Jerami Grant POR
9%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
9 Kris Murray POR
8%
10 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
41%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Evan Mobley CLE 22.4 10.0 3.8
2 Anfernee Simons POR 21.4 3.2 5.8
3 Darius Garland CLE 19.5 3.0 6.1
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.2 4.1 3.4
5 Deni Avdija POR 15.7 5.2 3.6
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE 13.6 4.3 1.7
7 Scoot Henderson POR 13.5 3.0 5.1
8 Ty Jerome CLE 13.5 3.5 3.3
9 Jerami Grant POR 12.9 3.7 2.4
10 Toumani Camara POR 12.6 6.5 2.8
11 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.4 10.4 2.0
12 Max Strus CLE 10.2 3.9 2.8
13 Sam Merrill CLE 8.5 2.6 1.2
14 Donovan Clingan POR 8.3 7.8 1.1
15 Dalano Banton POR 7.7 2.0 1.8
16 Jabari Walker POR 6.3 4.0 1.2
17 Dean Wade CLE 6.2 4.1 1.6
18 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.0 2.5 1.0
19 Kris Murray POR 4.7 2.3 0.8
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.7 1.9 1.9
21 Javonte Green CLE 4.7 3.3 0.9
22 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.7 2.3 1.2
23 Robert Williams III POR 3.9 5.8 0.7
24 Duop Reath POR 3.1 1.3 0.5
25 Sidy Cissoko POR 2.7 1.1 0.5
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.4 1.3 0.6
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.6 2.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.