NBA games

DEN @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
103–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN20282926103
BOS32292227110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home BOS
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 40 26 6 7
Christian Braun S 47 24 6 3
Nikola Jokic S 39 20 14 9
Russell Westbrook S 36 12 3 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 40 10 5 2
Julian Strawther 14 4 0 0
Jalen Pickett 8 3 1 0
Zeke Nnaji 8 3 0 0
DeAndre Jordan 9 1 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 37 22 5 8
Al Horford S 35 19 8 0
Derrick White S 33 17 3 2
Jayson Tatum S 38 16 11 7
Payton Pritchard 26 11 1 3
Neemias Queta 17 8 10 1
Luke Kornet S 31 8 1 4
Sam Hauser 17 8 3 1
Torrey Craig 6 1 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Christian Braun DEN
16%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Zeke Nnaji DEN
8%
9 Sam Hauser BOS
7%
10 Al Horford BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
21%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.6 7.7 6.2
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.5 3.4 6.0
3 Nikola Jokic DEN 23.9 11.1 8.8
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 21.3 8.3 2.4
5 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.1 5.5 3.9
6 Christian Braun DEN 18.3 6.9 3.2
7 Derrick White BOS 18.1 4.7 5.2
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.0 4.4 3.7
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.2 5.0 4.3
10 Julian Strawther DEN 10.0 2.8 1.6
11 Al Horford BOS 8.9 6.3 1.5
12 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 3.2 1.2
13 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.4 3.9 0.9
14 Torrey Craig BOS 6.2 2.6 0.8
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.8 4.5 1.7
16 Dario Saric DEN 5.3 3.6 1.7
17 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.0 1.9 1.9
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.7 2.8 0.8
19 Drew Peterson BOS 3.7 1.8 1.0
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.5 5.1 0.9
21 JD Davison BOS 3.5 1.3 1.1
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.1 1.7 0.5
23 Anton Watson BOS 3.0 1.3 1.0
24 Spencer Jones DEN 2.4 1.2 0.5
25 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.2 1.4 0.6
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.2 1.1 0.6
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.1 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.