NBA games

MIL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
132–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL31403031132
DAL36271638117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DAL
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 29 9 9
Damian Lillard S 36 28 6 6
Gary Trent Jr. 30 20 5 2
Brook Lopez S 29 13 6 3
Kevin Porter Jr. 12 11 2 3
Kyle Kuzma S 32 10 8 2
Taurean Prince S 31 9 7 5
Jericho Sims 19 6 8 2
AJ Green 19 6 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 38 31 5 3
Moses Brown S 22 18 9 0
Jaden Hardy 22 16 1 4
Klay Thompson S 29 16 2 5
Spencer Dinwiddie 20 12 0 3
Naji Marshall 30 7 4 4
Max Christie S 27 5 2 3
Dante Exum 11 4 1 0
P.J. Washington S 15 4 5 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 14 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
2 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
4 Kyrie Irving DAL
9%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
6 Max Christie DAL
8%
7 Damian Lillard MIL
8%
8 Moses Brown DAL
8%
9 Naji Marshall DAL
7%
10 Caleb Martin DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
87%
Jumper
3%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.2 13.9 6.5
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.0 4.5 6.8
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.5 5.1 4.2
4 P.J. Washington DAL 19.1 9.4 3.5
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 17.6 7.0 3.1
6 Brook Lopez MIL 15.4 5.9 2.0
7 Max Christie DAL 15.1 4.6 3.6
8 Bobby Portis MIL 14.4 9.3 2.5
9 Klay Thompson DAL 14.1 4.3 2.0
10 Naji Marshall DAL 13.2 6.1 3.0
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.8 3.3 2.0
12 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 11.1 2.5 3.3
13 Taurean Prince MIL 10.7 3.4 1.7
14 Dante Exum DAL 10.5 2.5 3.4
15 Caleb Martin DAL 10.2 4.4 1.9
16 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 8.7 3.1 2.8
17 AJ Green MIL 8.7 2.7 1.6
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.1 1.8 1.1
19 Moses Brown DAL 4.9 3.4 0.7
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.6 2.7 1.0
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.9 2.1 0.8
22 Jericho Sims MIL 3.2 3.2 0.7
23 Tyler Smith MIL 3.1 1.3 0.5
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.7 3.1 0.8
25 Chris Livingston MIL 1.5 1.4 0.3
26 Stanley Umude MIL 1.5 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.