NBA games

GS @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
119–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS30253529119
PHI30372930126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home PHI
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 36 29 5 13
Quinten Post S 25 16 9 1
Gary Payton II 23 15 7 4
Gui Santos 17 14 4 2
Draymond Green S 36 13 8 8
Kevon Looney 12 10 4 0
Moses Moody S 38 10 2 0
Buddy Hield 17 6 2 3
Brandin Podziemski S 25 5 6 2
Kevin Knox II 7 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 37 44 6 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 42 20 2 1
Guerschon Yabusele 27 18 6 5
Paul George S 39 17 8 4
Andre Drummond S 21 10 14 2
Tyrese Maxey S 40 5 3 11
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 14 5 0 3
Justin Edwards 16 4 1 0
Lonnie Walker IV 6 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andre Drummond · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Andre Drummond makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
12%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
4 Paul George PHI
10%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
6 Draymond Green GS
8%
7 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
8 Stephen Curry GS
8%
9 Quentin Grimes PHI
7%
10 Moses Moody GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
36%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.3 4.6 5.1
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.1 3.8 6.0
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 16.3 5.7 5.9
4 Brandin Podziemski GS 15.9 5.9 4.8
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.3 6.2 1.6
6 Paul George PHI 14.0 4.2 3.0
7 Moses Moody GS 12.7 3.6 1.6
8 Draymond Green GS 12.3 5.9 6.0
9 Quentin Grimes PHI 12.2 4.4 2.6
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.4 5.3 1.5
11 Buddy Hield GS 10.7 3.4 1.9
12 Justin Edwards PHI 9.5 3.4 1.7
13 Quinten Post GS 8.4 3.8 1.5
14 Andre Drummond PHI 6.2 5.7 1.2
15 Gary Payton II GS 5.7 2.0 1.3
16 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 5.1 2.0 1.5
17 Kevon Looney GS 4.8 5.8 1.3
18 Kevin Knox II GS 4.8 2.5 0.7
19 Jared Butler PHI 4.8 1.7 2.1
20 Gui Santos GS 4.1 3.3 1.4
21 Pat Spencer GS 3.4 1.9 1.1
22 Adem Bona PHI 3.3 3.3 0.5
23 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.2 1.1 1.0
24 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 2.9 1.0 1.6
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.7 2.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.