NBA games

SA @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
130–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA31462231130
MEM30283832128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MEM
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle 32 24 3 7
De'Aaron Fox S 35 20 3 7
Devin Vassell S 33 20 6 3
Jeremy Sochan 30 18 11 3
Keldon Johnson 30 15 6 1
Julian Champagnie 23 14 7 2
Chris Paul S 20 8 3 8
Bismack Biyombo S 18 6 3 1
Harrison Barnes S 18 5 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 42 4 2
Jaylen Wells S 39 18 2 3
Zach Edey 26 17 9 0
Santi Aldama S 37 15 8 11
Luke Kennard 24 14 6 5
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 28 12 4 7
Lamar Stevens 16 6 4 0
GG Jackson 10 4 1 1
Jay Huff 3 0 0 0
Cam Spencer 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
16%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
16%
3 Bismack Biyombo SA
13%
4 Harrison Barnes SA
12%
5 Zach Edey MEM
11%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
7 Chris Paul SA
10%
8 Devin Vassell SA
10%
9 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
10 Stephon Castle SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
33%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SA 22.5 4.7 7.1
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.5 5.6 2.7
3 Stephon Castle SA 14.1 4.1 2.5
4 Devin Vassell SA 13.2 3.4 2.3
5 Santi Aldama MEM 12.0 5.9 2.9
6 Keldon Johnson SA 11.4 3.2 1.8
7 Harrison Barnes SA 10.8 4.2 1.7
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 9.5 5.6 2.2
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.4 3.4 1.3
10 Chris Paul SA 9.0 2.5 6.6
11 GG Jackson MEM 8.5 3.2 1.2
12 Bismack Biyombo SA 7.5 6.4 1.2
13 Luke Kennard MEM 7.4 2.6 2.7
14 Julian Champagnie SA 6.6 2.5 1.5
15 Zach Edey MEM 6.5 7.8 0.9
16 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.3 2.8 2.5
17 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.2 2.4 0.8
18 Lamar Stevens MEM 5.1 3.8 1.4
19 Cam Spencer MEM 4.9 1.8 1.5
20 Marvin Bagley III MEM 3.9 2.8 0.5
21 Blake Wesley SA 2.9 1.1 1.8
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.8 1.0 1.1
23 Malaki Branham SA 2.8 1.2 0.7
24 John Konchar MEM 2.1 1.9 0.5
25 Jay Huff MEM 2.0 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.