NBA games

SAC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
113–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC25382624113
HOU21382321103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home HOU
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 40 21 2 6
Zach LaVine S 37 20 6 4
Malik Monk S 34 16 5 4
Jonas Valanciunas 30 15 14 1
Keegan Murray S 33 13 5 2
Keon Ellis 27 12 5 0
Jake LaRavia 16 5 4 1
Trey Lyles 17 5 5 2
Markelle Fultz 4 5 0 1
Domantas Sabonis S 1 1 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 37 30 10 5
Jalen Green S 37 24 2 2
Tari Eason 23 14 4 2
Dillon Brooks S 30 12 1 0
Aaron Holiday 9 7 1 0
Amen Thompson S 41 6 11 3
Jabari Smith Jr. 20 5 7 0
Fred VanVleet S 35 3 5 5
Steven Adams 8 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 Zach LaVine SAC
11%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC
9%
6 Malik Monk SAC
8%
7 Jalen Green HOU
8%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.2 4.9 5.2
2 Zach LaVine SAC 23.4 3.9 4.8
3 Jalen Green HOU 23.2 4.5 5.3
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 18.5 9.5 3.9
5 Malik Monk SAC 18.1 4.9 6.0
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 16.8 12.8 5.2
7 Amen Thompson HOU 16.5 8.0 5.3
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.9 4.2 2.4
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.8 6.3 1.4
10 Keegan Murray SAC 12.6 6.0 1.7
11 Tari Eason HOU 12.4 6.2 1.6
12 Fred VanVleet HOU 11.3 2.7 5.0
13 Keon Ellis SAC 10.2 3.4 1.6
14 Jeff Green HOU 8.4 2.5 1.1
15 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 8.3 6.4 1.4
16 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.7 2.7 1.4
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.6 2.2 1.5
18 Jock Landale HOU 5.7 3.6 1.1
19 Steven Adams HOU 5.5 5.6 1.1
20 Markelle Fultz SAC 4.8 1.7 1.0
21 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.6 1.9 0.9
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.5 2.1 1.4
23 Jae Crowder SAC 3.8 2.1 0.6
24 Jake LaRavia SAC 3.7 2.6 1.2
25 Nate Williams HOU 3.7 1.4 0.8
26 Trey Lyles SAC 3.5 2.3 0.7
27 Doug McDermott SAC 2.3 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.