NBA games

BKN @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
94–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2223301994
DET39291334115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home DET
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Martin 23 23 1 1
Jalen Wilson 26 14 3 3
Cameron Johnson S 30 13 4 0
Ziaire Williams S 26 11 3 1
Keon Johnson S 30 10 8 2
Nic Claxton S 24 9 6 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 4 5 6
Killian Hayes S 26 4 4 3
Maxwell Lewis 10 3 3 0
Reece Beekman 27 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 30 18 11 2
Tobias Harris S 32 18 9 2
Malik Beasley 24 18 0 1
Cade Cunningham S 32 15 7 9
Ausar Thompson S 23 13 5 3
Ronald Holland II 16 10 2 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 22 9 1 2
Dennis Schroder 18 7 2 5
Isaiah Stewart 14 3 4 1
Paul Reed 4 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ziaire Williams · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Ziaire Williams makes 1-foot dunk (Keon Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris DET
11%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Cameron Johnson BKN
10%
4 Jalen Duren DET
9%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
8 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
9 Cam Thomas BKN
8%
10 D'Angelo Russell BKN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
25%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.1 5.5 8.5
2 Cam Thomas BKN 23.1 4.1 3.8
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 18.2 4.3 3.4
4 Tobias Harris DET 17.3 5.1 2.2
5 Malik Beasley DET 15.5 3.0 1.7
6 Ausar Thompson DET 13.4 5.8 4.0
7 Keon Johnson BKN 13.2 4.6 2.4
8 Jalen Duren DET 13.0 10.7 3.8
9 D'Angelo Russell BKN 12.9 3.2 3.7
10 Nic Claxton BKN 12.7 7.3 2.2
11 Killian Hayes BKN 11.3 3.2 5.1
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.9 5.3 1.6
13 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.7 7.5 2.2
14 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.4 2.8 1.8
15 Dennis Schroder DET 8.4 2.9 4.2
16 Jalen Wilson BKN 7.7 3.2 1.7
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.0 5.3 1.4
18 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.5 2.9 1.3
19 Marcus Sasser DET 6.0 1.4 2.5
20 Ronald Holland II DET 5.8 2.3 1.2
21 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.5 3.2 0.9
22 Paul Reed DET 3.7 3.3 0.9
23 Daniss Jenkins DET 3.1 1.3 0.9
24 Reece Beekman BKN 3.0 1.4 1.3
25 Lindy Waters III DET 2.8 1.3 0.8
26 Maxwell Lewis BKN 2.4 1.2 0.6
27 Bobi Klintman DET 2.3 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.