NBA games

WSH @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
113100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH24303029113
CHA25341625100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CHA
92% 8%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton S 24 17 5 6
Bilal Coulibaly S 34 17 7 3
Richaun Holmes 22 15 9 3
Corey Kispert 25 13 5 4
Marcus Smart 20 12 2 1
Bub Carrington S 32 11 5 4
Justin Champagnie 22 10 8 2
Alex Sarr S 26 10 3 2
Kyshawn George S 35 8 4 8
Jalen McDaniels 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mark Williams S 34 24 12 3
LaMelo Ball S 32 20 7 3
Miles Bridges S 36 18 7 7
Josh Green S 32 13 4 5
Nick Smith Jr. S 38 12 4 4
Damion Baugh 20 5 5 2
Moussa Diabate 13 4 2 1
Malachi Flynn 8 2 0 2
DaQuan Jeffries 11 2 1 1
Tidjane Salaun 15 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes alley oop dunk shot (Josh Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
2 Mark Williams CHA
13%
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
5 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
6 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
7 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
8%
8 Josh Green CHA
7%
9 Khris Middleton WSH
7%
10 Grant Williams CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
29%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 22.9 7.6 3.9
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.6 4.2 6.5
3 Mark Williams CHA 18.3 10.3 2.7
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.5 5.2 5.1
5 Corey Kispert WSH 15.5 3.5 2.4
6 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 14.6 2.7 3.7
7 Bub Carrington WSH 13.3 4.2 4.6
8 Grant Williams CHA 12.9 6.0 2.2
9 Khris Middleton WSH 12.5 3.8 3.5
10 Kyshawn George WSH 12.5 5.7 3.0
11 Alex Sarr WSH 11.8 6.3 1.9
12 Damion Baugh CHA 11.1 3.0 4.3
13 Richaun Holmes WSH 11.0 7.8 1.9
14 Josh Green CHA 9.7 2.3 1.8
15 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.9 7.3 1.4
16 Marcus Smart WSH 8.8 2.3 2.5
17 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.4 3.9 1.3
18 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.4 3.8 1.0
19 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.1 4.0 1.2
20 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.9 2.9 1.5
21 Taj Gibson CHA 4.4 4.9 0.9
22 Malachi Flynn CHA 4.0 1.3 1.2
23 Jaylen Martin WSH 2.6 1.0 0.4
24 AJ Johnson WSH 2.6 0.8 0.9
25 Jalen McDaniels WSH 2.5 1.6 0.4
26 Anthony Gill WSH 1.8 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.