NBA games

LAC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
102–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC25292325102
LAL24352423106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home LAL
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ivica Zubac S 38 27 16 0
Kawhi Leonard S 38 21 4 3
James Harden S 39 18 7 9
Kris Dunn S 29 14 9 6
Derrick Jones Jr. S 29 8 4 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 20 6 0 1
Amir Coffey 22 4 1 2
Nicolas Batum 9 2 0 0
Ben Simmons 16 2 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 35 31 2 5
LeBron James S 37 28 13 3
Dalton Knecht 18 8 1 1
Gabe Vincent 26 7 1 3
Dorian Finney-Smith S 31 7 5 3
Jordan Goodwin 21 6 5 2
Austin Reaves S 9 6 0 0
Trey Jemison III 22 5 6 0
Jaxson Hayes S 26 5 1 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 15 3 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
15%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
5 LeBron James LAL
12%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
10%
7 James Harden LAC
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
10 Nicolas Batum LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
35%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 28.6 10.2 7.9
2 Luka Doncic LAL 24.3 9.2 7.0
3 Austin Reaves LAL 24.2 4.6 6.5
4 James Harden LAC 21.7 5.6 8.5
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC 19.8 5.8 4.0
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.9 11.0 2.6
7 Amir Coffey LAC 11.6 2.5 1.5
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.1 2.7 2.4
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.0 2.9 1.3
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.8 3.7 2.0
11 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.4 6.1 1.5
12 Ben Simmons LAC 8.2 5.6 5.7
13 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.0 1.6 1.8
14 Kris Dunn LAC 7.2 4.2 3.2
15 Jordan Goodwin LAL 5.8 3.5 1.0
16 Dalton Knecht LAL 5.7 1.8 0.8
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.6 4.5 1.2
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.4 2.5 0.8
19 Drew Eubanks LAC 4.4 2.9 0.7
20 Cam Reddish LAL 4.1 2.1 1.0
21 Shake Milton LAL 3.5 1.7 1.1
22 Patty Mills LAC 2.8 0.9 0.6
23 MarJon Beauchamp LAC 2.5 1.2 0.6
24 Trey Jemison III LAL 2.4 2.7 0.4
25 Markieff Morris LAL 2.2 0.8 0.6
26 Kobe Brown LAC 1.6 1.3 0.4
27 Alex Len LAL 1.6 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.