NBA games

MIN @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
116–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN40272524116
UTAH38183823117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home UTAH
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid S 41 27 11 5
Jaden McDaniels S 35 20 10 5
Terrence Shannon Jr. S 28 17 4 5
Luka Garza 18 16 1 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 35 12 2 2
Donte DiVincenzo 26 12 7 5
Jaylen Clark 16 5 1 2
Rob Dillingham 18 4 3 4
Mike Conley S 24 3 1 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Collins S 27 29 12 1
Brice Sensabaugh 23 17 3 2
Collin Sexton S 17 13 1 3
Kyle Filipowski 22 11 13 2
Isaiah Collier S 30 11 3 14
KJ Martin 22 11 4 0
Walker Kessler S 26 9 13 1
Cody Williams 18 9 0 1
Keyonte George 25 5 4 9
Johnny Juzang S 21 2 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Sexton · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Collin Sexton makes 24-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
11%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
4 Naz Reid MIN
11%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
6 Isaiah Collier UTAH
9%
7 Anthony Edwards MIN
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
7%
9 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
7%
10 KJ Martin UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
24%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.8 7.4 6.2
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.5 3.4 4.7
3 John Collins UTAH 20.4 7.8 1.7
4 Naz Reid MIN 20.3 9.7 3.8
5 Keyonte George UTAH 19.6 4.2 5.9
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.9 7.8 3.2
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 15.1 4.6 5.2
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 13.8 4.6 8.5
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 13.7 4.3 3.3
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.3 12.7 2.1
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 10.7 3.3 1.5
12 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 10.4 5.1 1.9
13 Mike Conley MIN 10.0 2.6 5.2
14 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 8.7 3.3 1.8
15 KJ Martin UTAH 7.9 4.0 1.2
16 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.6 2.3 0.8
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 6.7 2.0 1.1
18 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 6.7 2.3 1.2
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 6.4 1.8 2.7
20 Cody Williams UTAH 5.6 2.9 1.5
21 Bones Hyland MIN 4.6 0.9 1.5
22 Jaden Springer UTAH 4.2 1.7 0.9
23 Luka Garza MIN 3.7 2.7 0.8
24 Leonard Miller MIN 2.6 1.6 0.4
25 Joe Ingles MIN 2.3 0.9 1.3
26 Tristen Newton MIN 2.3 0.9 1.1
27 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.