NBA games

NO @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
108–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO18242838108
PHX40232933125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home PHX
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Hawkins S 31 24 2 4
Yves Missi S 26 24 5 1
Antonio Reeves 21 11 2 1
Kelly Olynyk S 27 11 7 5
Trey Murphy III S 35 10 3 8
Bruce Brown S 29 10 4 3
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 15 9 1 0
Jamal Cain 12 4 1 1
Jose Alvarado 23 3 5 4
Karlo Matkovic 22 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bol Bol S 26 25 3 2
Nick Richards S 29 19 12 2
Royce O'Neale 26 18 3 3
Kevin Durant S 35 17 2 6
Devin Booker S 37 17 0 9
Collin Gillespie 18 9 2 4
Tyus Jones S 32 9 1 6
Mason Plumlee 17 6 9 3
Ryan Dunn 17 5 2 0
TyTy Washington Jr. 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
12%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Zion Williamson NO
10%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
6 Yves Missi NO
8%
7 Nick Richards PHX
8%
8 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
9 Bol Bol PHX
7%
10 Vasilije Micic PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
35%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.2 4.2 8.3
2 Zion Williamson NO 27.2 7.6 5.9
3 Kevin Durant PHX 24.1 5.4 4.7
4 Trey Murphy III NO 23.3 5.5 6.2
5 CJ McCollum NO 23.0 4.7 4.2
6 Jose Alvarado NO 12.5 4.0 5.8
7 Bol Bol PHX 11.9 5.4 1.4
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.6 4.1 2.2
9 Karlo Matkovic NO 10.7 6.1 1.5
10 Tyus Jones PHX 10.7 3.3 6.0
11 Kelly Olynyk NO 9.9 5.6 3.0
12 Yves Missi NO 9.7 9.4 1.4
13 Vasilije Micic PHX 9.4 2.4 3.8
14 Nick Richards PHX 9.1 9.3 1.0
15 Jordan Hawkins NO 8.6 3.2 1.7
16 Bruce Brown NO 6.0 2.9 1.6
17 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.9 5.6 1.8
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.2 3.4 0.8
19 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.3 1.8 1.2
20 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 4.2 1.9 1.2
21 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.9 2.6 0.8
22 Jamal Cain NO 3.4 2.0 0.6
23 Antonio Reeves NO 3.4 1.4 1.0
24 Damion Lee PHX 3.4 0.8 0.5
25 Oso Ighodaro PHX 2.1 1.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.