NBA games

NY @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY25312632114
MEM32272925113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MEM
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 23 7 6
OG Anunoby S 38 19 3 3
Miles McBride 28 17 4 3
Mikal Bridges S 33 15 2 3
Josh Hart S 29 12 4 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 11 7 2
Mitchell Robinson 12 6 5 1
Landry Shamet 16 5 0 2
Cameron Payne 12 3 2 3
Precious Achiuwa 4 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 31 25 4 7
Desmond Bane S 35 24 12 4
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 18 7 1
Brandon Clarke 17 11 7 2
Zach Edey S 24 10 11 1
Santi Aldama 21 9 5 2
Vince Williams Jr. 20 7 7 4
Luke Kennard 24 6 1 3
Jaylen Wells S 22 3 1 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 12 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Edey · Layup (2 pts) · 10:37 Q1
"Zach Edey makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Hart NY
13%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
4 Ja Morant MEM
10%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
7 OG Anunoby NY
10%
8 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
9 Zach Edey MEM
8%
10 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
34%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.2 3.5 6.8
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.7 10.7 2.6
3 Ja Morant MEM 22.7 4.2 7.0
4 Desmond Bane MEM 22.3 6.6 5.7
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.9 5.5 3.0
6 Josh Hart NY 19.9 10.2 6.3
7 Mikal Bridges NY 17.0 3.9 3.7
8 OG Anunoby NY 16.1 4.7 2.5
9 Santi Aldama MEM 13.1 6.0 3.1
10 Precious Achiuwa NY 11.0 8.2 1.7
11 Miles McBride NY 9.0 2.7 1.5
12 Jaylen Wells MEM 8.9 3.2 1.2
13 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.4 5.0 1.1
14 Luke Kennard MEM 7.1 2.5 3.3
15 Cameron Payne NY 6.4 1.5 3.3
16 Zach Edey MEM 6.1 8.0 0.9
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.0 3.1 1.7
18 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 5.2 2.2 2.7
19 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.9 3.6 1.3
20 Cam Spencer MEM 4.6 1.6 1.5
21 Landry Shamet NY 4.1 1.4 1.0
22 Marvin Bagley III MEM 4.0 2.9 0.4
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.5 1.0 0.5
24 Delon Wright NY 2.3 1.3 1.4
25 John Konchar MEM 2.2 1.9 0.5
26 Jay Huff MEM 2.0 1.0 0.4
27 Matt Ryan NY 1.9 0.7 0.4
28 Tyler Kolek NY 1.7 0.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.