NBA games

TOR @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
115–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
TOR303327205115
CHI2727272915125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CHI
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 36 24 8 6
Immanuel Quickley S 32 23 5 5
RJ Barrett S 40 18 7 8
Gradey Dick S 35 13 9 1
Orlando Robinson 24 12 8 3
Jakob Poeltl S 22 10 4 3
Ja'Kobe Walter 22 7 4 1
Jamal Shead 23 5 2 2
Ochai Agbaji 1 3 0 0
Jonathan Mogbo 28 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 37 24 4 3
Josh Giddey S 40 19 8 12
Kevin Huerter 28 15 1 2
Zach Collins S 40 15 13 5
Lonzo Ball S 34 14 2 2
Ayo Dosunmu 23 11 5 2
Tre Jones 12 10 1 2
Matas Buzelis S 25 10 4 3
Jalen Smith 13 4 6 1
Julian Phillips 8 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes 2-foot layup (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
6 Lonzo Ball CHI
8%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
9 Zach Collins CHI
7%
10 Josh Giddey CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
25%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.7 5.2 7.4
2 RJ Barrett TOR 23.0 5.8 5.4
3 Josh Giddey CHI 22.5 8.2 6.1
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.3 7.0 5.7
5 Coby White CHI 19.4 3.6 5.0
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.1 4.1 6.2
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.0 3.3 4.5
8 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.3 4.0 2.0
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.2 8.8 3.5
10 Gradey Dick TOR 11.6 4.4 1.8
11 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.0 3.9 1.5
12 Lonzo Ball CHI 9.6 3.7 2.2
13 Jamal Shead TOR 9.4 2.2 4.9
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.9 3.7 1.5
15 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 8.6 4.4 2.3
16 Kevin Huerter CHI 7.9 2.3 2.0
17 Chris Boucher TOR 7.6 4.5 1.1
18 Tre Jones CHI 7.0 1.9 2.4
19 Jalen Smith CHI 6.9 4.8 0.9
20 Zach Collins CHI 6.1 4.3 1.5
21 Dalen Terry CHI 6.0 2.0 1.6
22 Orlando Robinson TOR 5.9 3.6 1.6
23 Julian Phillips CHI 5.2 2.5 0.7
24 Emanuel Miller CHI 5.0 2.3 0.6
25 Jevon Carter CHI 3.8 1.0 0.9
26 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 2.7 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.