NBA games

IND @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
120–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND35342328120
MIA29392928125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 32 36 6 2
Myles Turner S 35 22 3 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 19 2 10
Andrew Nembhard S 37 9 3 11
Thomas Bryant 13 8 5 1
Obi Toppin 16 7 1 0
T.J. McConnell 13 7 0 5
Aaron Nesmith S 35 7 6 2
Ben Sheppard 15 5 4 1
Jarace Walker 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 34 29 3 7
Duncan Robinson 29 20 2 5
Bam Adebayo S 31 18 7 7
Alec Burks 21 13 3 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 14 11 4 1
Davion Mitchell S 37 10 3 8
Haywood Highsmith 29 9 3 1
Kel'el Ware S 28 8 12 0
Terry Rozier 11 4 1 3
Kyle Anderson 6 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 13-foot jumper (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
15%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Kel'el Ware MIA
10%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
7 Myles Turner IND
9%
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
29%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.8 4.8 7.1
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.3 10.4 3.8
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.4 5.0 3.9
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.1 3.5 8.9
5 Pascal Siakam IND 15.9 6.1 2.3
6 Myles Turner IND 14.6 4.7 2.0
7 Terry Rozier MIA 13.0 3.8 2.2
8 Nikola Jovic MIA 12.9 3.8 3.3
9 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.5 2.3 4.3
10 Obi Toppin IND 11.0 4.1 1.8
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.8 9.7 1.9
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.3 2.9 3.6
13 Aaron Nesmith IND 9.5 3.7 1.8
14 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.4 2.4 2.3
15 Thomas Bryant IND 9.1 5.6 2.0
16 T.J. McConnell IND 7.9 2.4 4.2
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.9 3.0 1.2
18 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.5 3.8 2.1
19 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.2 3.1 1.8
20 Alec Burks MIA 6.0 3.3 1.2
21 Kyle Anderson MIA 5.8 3.1 1.4
22 Kevin Love MIA 3.3 1.9 0.8
23 Pelle Larsson MIA 3.3 1.5 0.8
24 Jarace Walker IND 3.2 1.8 1.0
25 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.4 0.5
26 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.