NBA games

CLE @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
123–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE26383128123
BOS38362418116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BOS
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 41 3 5
Darius Garland S 32 20 3 7
Evan Mobley S 29 17 12 3
De'Andre Hunter 29 12 5 1
Jarrett Allen S 24 10 4 1
Ty Jerome 21 8 4 3
Isaac Okoro 12 5 3 0
Dean Wade 19 5 3 1
Sam Merrill 18 3 3 0
Max Strus S 22 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 41 46 16 9
Jaylen Brown S 34 37 5 2
Derrick White S 41 16 1 5
Payton Pritchard 25 6 0 1
Sam Hauser S 38 6 6 1
Al Horford S 38 5 7 2
Luke Kornet 19 0 5 0
Torrey Craig 3 0 0 0
Drew Peterson 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Torrey Craig BOS
7%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
31%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.7 6.7 5.4
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.6 4.2 4.9
3 Evan Mobley CLE 20.4 9.2 3.7
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 19.5 5.5 3.8
5 Darius Garland CLE 18.7 2.8 5.7
6 Derrick White BOS 17.8 4.7 5.3
7 Ty Jerome CLE 15.3 3.3 3.5
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE 14.5 4.2 1.7
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.9 4.6 3.3
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.0 10.3 1.8
11 Max Strus CLE 9.4 3.9 2.9
12 Al Horford BOS 8.1 5.9 1.3
13 Sam Merrill CLE 7.9 2.4 1.3
14 Sam Hauser BOS 6.8 2.8 1.0
15 Torrey Craig BOS 5.7 2.7 0.8
16 Dean Wade CLE 5.1 4.3 1.5
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.9 2.1 2.0
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.9 2.9 0.8
19 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.8 2.4 1.3
20 Luke Kornet BOS 4.8 3.7 1.3
21 Isaac Okoro CLE 4.7 2.0 1.0
22 Javonte Green CLE 4.7 3.3 1.0
23 JD Davison BOS 3.7 1.3 1.1
24 Drew Peterson BOS 3.4 1.5 0.9
25 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 2.9 1.8 0.4
26 Anton Watson BOS 2.9 1.2 1.0
27 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.4 1.5 0.6
28 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 1.2 0.6
29 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.3 1.2 0.5
30 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.9 2.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.