NBA games

OKC @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
135–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC40313727135
ATL23412035119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home ATL
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 31 3 5
Luguentz Dort S 32 20 4 1
Jalen Williams S 33 20 5 8
Aaron Wiggins 26 13 6 2
Isaiah Hartenstein 27 13 10 6
Isaiah Joe 11 12 0 0
Cason Wallace S 28 8 3 4
Chet Holmgren S 15 7 4 3
Kenrich Williams 19 5 4 5
Jaylin Williams 13 3 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 35 23 13 2
Caris LeVert 27 23 3 3
Trae Young S 35 19 3 12
Georges Niang 28 14 4 2
Terance Mann 26 13 5 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 32 12 9 2
Dyson Daniels S 32 10 4 3
Keaton Wallace 2 3 0 0
Mouhamed Gueye S 10 2 1 0
Dominick Barlow 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 1-foot two point shot (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
13%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
30%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 25.8 4.8 6.2
2 Trae Young ATL 24.0 3.2 10.7
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.0 5.2 5.3
4 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.7 7.0 5.3
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC 17.1 4.6 2.0
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.7 9.0 3.3
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.1 7.7 1.6
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.8 3.9 1.7
9 Georges Niang ATL 11.7 4.2 1.7
10 Caris LeVert ATL 11.7 3.8 2.1
11 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.9 8.5 2.7
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.0 3.2 1.5
13 Cason Wallace OKC 9.6 3.7 2.0
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.1 2.7 1.5
15 Clint Capela ATL 8.1 7.9 1.1
16 Terance Mann ATL 6.9 2.8 1.6
17 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.5 4.0 0.9
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.3 1.4 2.2
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.8 6.0 2.4
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.4 2.5 1.7
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.6 1.9 1.1
22 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.6 1.7 0.5
23 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.3 2.3 0.4
24 Adam Flagler OKC 1.7 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.