NBA games

DEN @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
134–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN39293927134
DET31322432119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home DET
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 35 31 3 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 28 9 1
Christian Braun S 35 23 6 2
Nikola Jokic S 34 23 17 15
Zeke Nnaji S 21 8 2 2
Russell Westbrook 21 8 4 2
Julian Strawther 27 6 1 1
DeAndre Jordan 10 4 6 0
Dario Saric 4 3 0 0
Spencer Jones 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley 26 16 4 3
Ausar Thompson S 26 13 4 5
Tobias Harris S 26 12 2 3
Simone Fontecchio 13 12 0 0
Cade Cunningham S 28 11 3 5
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 17 10 1 2
Dennis Schroder 24 8 6 7
Ronald Holland II 20 8 4 1
Jalen Duren S 16 8 8 2
Paul Reed 12 8 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes 1-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Christian Braun DEN
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
3 Tobias Harris DET
11%
4 Jalen Duren DET
11%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
9 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
10 Julian Strawther DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.2 5.8 9.4
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.0 10.2 8.6
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.6 3.2 6.0
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.0 7.9 2.4
5 Tobias Harris DET 17.6 5.0 2.1
6 Christian Braun DEN 17.0 6.7 3.3
7 Malik Beasley DET 15.0 3.1 1.9
8 Jalen Duren DET 13.8 10.8 3.8
9 Ausar Thompson DET 13.6 5.7 4.1
10 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.3 5.0 4.9
11 Julian Strawther DEN 11.0 2.9 1.7
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.5 2.8 2.1
13 Dennis Schroder DET 8.8 2.6 3.8
14 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.4 5.4 1.5
15 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.8 4.1 0.8
16 Marcus Sasser DET 6.5 1.3 2.8
17 Ronald Holland II DET 5.8 2.1 1.3
18 Simone Fontecchio DET 4.7 3.0 0.7
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.0 1.3 1.7
20 Daniss Jenkins DET 3.9 1.5 1.0
21 Dario Saric DEN 3.7 2.8 1.4
22 Paul Reed DET 3.6 3.1 0.8
23 Lindy Waters III DET 3.5 1.7 0.8
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.4 4.6 0.9
25 Bobi Klintman DET 2.4 1.0 0.6
26 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.1 1.1 0.3
27 Spencer Jones DEN 1.4 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.