NBA games

MIN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
102–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN17302629102
LAL33252627111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAL
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terrence Shannon Jr. 29 25 5 2
Anthony Edwards S 26 18 6 5
Jaden McDaniels S 37 15 8 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 35 14 2 2
Mike Conley S 26 10 1 4
Donte DiVincenzo 23 9 5 6
Rob Dillingham 12 4 1 2
Jaylen Clark S 17 3 0 0
Naz Reid S 31 3 12 2
Luka Garza 5 1 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 33 17 6
Austin Reaves S 38 23 6 5
Luka Doncic S 36 21 13 5
Jaxson Hayes S 23 10 7 0
Jordan Goodwin 13 7 1 1
Rui Hachimura S 18 5 3 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 13 5 2 1
Gabe Vincent 20 4 1 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 31 3 1 1
Dalton Knecht 11 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 32-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
13%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
3 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
5 Naz Reid MIN
10%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
8 Anthony Edwards MIN
7%
9 Jaylen Clark MIN
6%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
14%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 29.2 9.1 7.9
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.1 7.0 6.0
3 Austin Reaves LAL 25.2 4.6 6.6
4 Luka Doncic LAL 24.8 9.2 7.4
5 Naz Reid MIN 21.4 9.5 3.4
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.3 7.5 3.0
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 17.4 5.5 1.9
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 16.4 4.7 4.7
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 12.1 3.9 2.8
10 Mike Conley MIN 9.2 2.3 4.9
11 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.4 3.8 2.0
12 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.1 1.7 1.8
13 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.5 5.6 1.6
14 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.3 2.1 0.8
15 Jaylen Clark MIN 6.4 1.7 1.1
16 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.8 1.5 2.5
17 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.7 2.5 1.3
18 Jordan Goodwin LAL 5.7 3.7 0.9
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.7 5.0 1.2
20 Shake Milton LAL 3.6 1.7 1.1
21 Luka Garza MIN 2.9 2.2 0.6
22 Cam Reddish LAL 2.9 1.6 0.7
23 Joe Ingles MIN 2.5 1.0 1.3
24 Markieff Morris LAL 2.3 0.8 0.6
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.1 1.5 0.3
26 Tristen Newton MIN 1.9 0.8 1.0
27 Alex Len LAL 1.8 1.7 0.6
28 Josh Minott MIN 1.5 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.