NBA games

NO @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
124–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO35262736124
PHX30322925116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home PHX
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 31 27 10 11
CJ McCollum S 35 19 4 2
Trey Murphy III S 36 18 4 1
Karlo Matkovic S 36 17 10 1
Jose Alvarado 20 14 1 5
Yves Missi S 29 11 10 1
Jordan Hawkins 23 10 5 3
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 21 5 6 1
Jamal Cain 10 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 42 36 7 9
Kevin Durant S 36 28 5 2
Bol Bol S 29 15 6 1
Tyus Jones S 39 15 5 12
Nick Richards S 31 10 16 2
Royce O'Neale 11 6 1 0
Mason Plumlee 17 4 8 0
Collin Gillespie 4 2 1 1
TyTy Washington Jr. 3 0 0 0
Grayson Allen 16 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 16-foot jumper (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
16%
2 Devin Booker PHX
14%
3 Zion Williamson NO
13%
4 CJ McCollum NO
12%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
6 Yves Missi NO
10%
7 Nick Richards PHX
10%
8 Vasilije Micic PHX
7%
9 Bol Bol PHX
7%
10 Jamal Cain NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.1 4.1 7.5
2 Zion Williamson NO 26.7 7.2 5.2
3 Trey Murphy III NO 24.3 5.4 6.4
4 Kevin Durant PHX 23.8 5.2 4.8
5 CJ McCollum NO 23.5 4.6 4.7
6 Jose Alvarado NO 12.7 3.8 5.7
7 Grayson Allen PHX 12.2 3.5 3.6
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.9 4.2 2.5
9 Bol Bol PHX 10.6 4.9 1.2
10 Karlo Matkovic NO 9.5 5.6 1.4
11 Vasilije Micic PHX 9.3 2.4 3.7
12 Yves Missi NO 9.2 9.4 1.3
13 Tyus Jones PHX 8.9 2.9 5.5
14 Jordan Hawkins NO 8.3 2.7 1.5
15 Nick Richards PHX 8.1 8.4 0.9
16 Bruce Brown NO 6.4 2.9 1.6
17 Brandon Boston NO 6.3 2.1 0.8
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 6.0 5.8 2.1
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.2 2.9 0.7
20 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.0 1.3 1.3
21 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.9 2.6 0.8
22 Antonio Reeves NO 3.8 1.5 1.0
23 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 3.8 1.3 1.1
24 Damion Lee PHX 3.4 0.9 0.5
25 Jamal Cain NO 2.7 1.3 0.5
26 Oso Ighodaro PHX 2.2 1.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.