NBA games

CHA @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
96–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2425182996
DAL25252330103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home DAL
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mark Williams S 31 26 16 3
Miles Bridges S 40 20 12 6
Nick Smith Jr. S 33 12 3 7
KJ Simpson S 31 11 4 5
Moussa Diabate 13 8 6 0
Josh Green S 36 7 2 2
DaQuan Jeffries 17 6 8 0
Taj Gibson 4 4 1 0
Damion Baugh 22 2 2 2
Seth Curry 14 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 38 25 9 5
Moses Brown S 31 20 11 0
Klay Thompson S 28 18 2 0
Dante Exum 25 12 3 3
Max Christie S 34 8 4 4
Spencer Dinwiddie 23 8 2 2
Dwight Powell 16 6 6 3
Kessler Edwards 5 3 1 0
Naji Marshall S 33 3 9 6
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Brown · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:26 Q1
"Moses Brown makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
2 Mark Williams CHA
12%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
5 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
10%
6 Max Christie DAL
9%
7 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
8 KJ Simpson CHA
7%
9 Josh Green CHA
7%
10 Kessler Edwards DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
29%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.7 5.2 4.5
2 Miles Bridges CHA 22.3 7.2 4.0
3 P.J. Washington DAL 19.7 9.5 3.7
4 Mark Williams CHA 16.7 10.9 2.4
5 Max Christie DAL 16.4 4.7 3.8
6 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 16.1 3.0 3.3
7 Klay Thompson DAL 14.4 4.6 2.5
8 Naji Marshall DAL 14.3 6.1 3.0
9 Damion Baugh CHA 13.3 3.3 5.0
10 Grant Williams CHA 13.1 6.2 2.2
11 KJ Simpson CHA 12.0 4.2 3.8
12 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 11.3 2.6 3.5
13 Dante Exum DAL 9.9 2.3 3.4
14 Josh Green CHA 9.8 2.5 2.0
15 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.3 7.8 1.8
16 Seth Curry CHA 8.5 2.8 1.4
17 Kessler Edwards DAL 6.3 4.6 1.5
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 6.1 3.2 1.4
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.6 1.4 1.1
20 Elfrid Payton CHA 5.1 2.9 3.5
21 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 4.8 1.9 1.3
22 Taj Gibson CHA 3.4 4.0 0.5
23 Moses Brown DAL 3.4 2.3 0.6
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.9 2.9 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.