NBA games

DEN @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
112–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN30272431112
MIL30243037121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIL
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 32 14 10
Jamal Murray S 40 20 3 5
Christian Braun S 31 13 10 3
Julian Strawther 20 12 0 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 12 10 3
Russell Westbrook 25 10 6 5
Aaron Gordon S 33 9 5 2
DeAndre Jordan 10 2 5 0
Zeke Nnaji 9 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 33 28 19 7
Brook Lopez S 37 22 4 3
Damian Lillard S 35 19 4 4
Kyle Kuzma S 37 16 9 5
Gary Trent Jr. 24 15 2 1
Taurean Prince S 30 10 4 1
AJ Green 20 6 1 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 13 3 1 2
Jericho Sims 11 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes layup (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
2 Christian Braun DEN
13%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
7 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
8 Jamal Murray DEN
7%
9 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
12%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.8 12.2 6.1
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.9 3.6 6.6
3 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.3 10.1 9.1
4 Damian Lillard MIL 23.3 4.1 6.8
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.3 8.0 2.4
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 19.0 6.6 2.8
7 Christian Braun DEN 18.8 7.1 3.3
8 Bobby Portis MIL 14.2 9.0 2.5
9 Brook Lopez MIL 14.1 5.7 1.9
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.7 4.9 4.4
11 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.7 5.3 5.4
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.3 3.1 1.8
13 Taurean Prince MIL 10.6 3.5 2.0
14 Julian Strawther DEN 10.2 3.2 1.8
15 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 8.9 3.3 2.6
16 AJ Green MIL 7.9 2.5 1.6
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 7.1 4.3 0.9
18 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.1 1.7 1.5
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.6 1.7 1.9
20 Dario Saric DEN 3.9 3.0 1.4
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.9 2.1 0.8
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.2 4.7 0.9
23 Tyler Smith MIL 2.9 1.2 0.5
24 Jericho Sims MIL 2.8 2.7 0.7
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.4 1.3 0.4
26 Liam Robbins MIL 2.4 1.4 0.6
27 Spencer Jones DEN 1.6 0.8 0.3
28 Chris Livingston MIL 1.3 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.